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James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree

Right or Left – the invasion of the neo-liberal agenda.

July 13, 2017 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

Identifying bipartisan values within in our polarised political class is hard.  Common ground is elusive not only because the values represented by politics have changed, but discerning the truth in an alternative fact world, filled with propaganda, is problematic.  What values do our politicians really hold, as opposed to what they say, they do?  What do our representatives really value and what leverage can we apply upon finding commonality between Liberal and Labor or Republican and Democratic representatives?

Our economic commonality

Once upon a time the Republicans stood against slavery, fighting a bitter civil war over it (even if the recently installed president Donald Trump himself, is not sure what that conflict was all about).  But now, the red shoe is very much on the other conservative foot.

The American economy was built on slavery, but the emancipation of the black population forced America to reconstitute slavery, redefining it by way of contemporary political spin.  The now changed and more authoritarian Republicans have achieved this by instigating the largest per capita incarceration rate in the world, where prisoners slave for the private industrialised markets.  And attempts by previous President Barack Obama to curtail this “market” are now being undone by his successor’s moves to boost it.

There are striking similarities in the Australian experience. Although rarely recognised as such, our own initial economic growth was also predicated on slavery of the convict and pacific islander variety.  So we can claim no high moral ground. Similarly with America’s passion for “rule of law” and the devising of ever more draconian reasons for increasing incarceration.  By way of example, where drug addiction and mental health are succesfully treated as a medical issue in more enlightened countries like Norway, in America and Australia they are still legal issues used to feed prison populations.

Australia is also no stranger to political ideology (once foreign and abhorrent to party politics, but which is now being swallowed whole).  Australia as one of the instigators of, signatories to and loud supporters of the UN refugee human rights platform, now holds refugees in foreign gulags across our oceans. Such treatment would have been unthinkable to foundational conservative stalwarts such as Robert Menzies, who in 1954 was amongst the first to ratify the Refugee Convention.  Once we in Australia reached out to refugees and embraced them as new neighbours into our community, bringing food parcels and contact to strangers. Today we have the increasing fiasco of scandals and mistreatment of refugees, first by Morrison, and now by Dutton.

Once upon a time

Political relics change with time but society's memory is short lived
Political relics change with time but society’s memory is short lived

Looking back, we were less afraid, our news of the wider world more limited.  Admittedly our situation was hardly perfect. We were more openly racist as evidenced by the White Australia Policy.  But we were also less willing to lie and obfuscate to justify our injustices. We were also more courageous, a little less insular in some manner, and far more attracted to science, wonder, community, tribalism and extended “families”.  Our societies here and abroad had a larger and more prosperous middle class. Greed was a vice, not a virtue. Class distinctions may have seemed more obvious, but now – when they are more prevalent – they are less discussed. We used to be about societies but now we are all about economies.  Interesting reading on that subject can be found in “An Economy is not a Society” by Dennis Glover.

Left and Right wing politics, Democrats and Republicans, Socialists and Conservatives stood for different approaches to the politics of life.  Distinctions that existed have disappeared over time.  The middle classes are vanishing and now the real polarisations are the rich and the poor, certainly not left and right. Christ was right when he said “the poor you will have always“.  One wonders if he actually realised just how vast the gulf would eventually become between the poor and the rich (whom he frequently addressed to do something about it)?  Money and it’s influence have become the ultimate distinction in western society.

“Greed is good!”

It no longer matters if you are Democrat, Liberal, Labor or Republican, as the common thread that holds our politics in undivided loyalty is Greed.  The sort that Gordon Gekko from “Wall Street” once famously declared was Good (although a lot of his speech was also about the complacency of the powerful).

Today our political class embraces greed and complacency without reserve or hesitation.  Politics is a lucrative business, as the recent scandals from One Nation demonstrate. Lobbyists, corporations, developers, the rich and empowered all bandy both “sides” of the political spectrum with donations, lucrative “political retirement” jobs and financial funding access.  The political arena is awash with nepotism to jobs for the boys.  That is on top of the significant salaries, lifelong pensions, travel and security concessions, and business opportunities, which are the dividends of a career in politics.  Though even in these shameless times, perhaps Mike Baird, could have spared a little more effort towards maintaining the illusion of some propriety, by spending a little more than six weeks with his “ailing family” (his avowed reason for suddenly quitting the hallowed position of NSW Premier), before taking up the far more lucrative banking industry role with the million dollar salary.

Helicopter scandals, perks & privileges should face ICAC
Helicopter scandals, perks & privileges should face ICAC

The “sides” that successful political parties hold to today, are small deviations from an overall shared conservative class of values, with greed always being at the center. The “left wing” parties follow the “right wing” parties who have a differential approach to following the money.   The pursuit of that money is closely followed by corruption, as the NSW ICAC has repeatedly found on BOTH sides of politics.  I attended a lecture by Dr Knox-Haly at the University of Sydney’s 5th floor Abercrombie Room on the history of ICAC on the 19th of May 2017.  Also in attendance was Elizabeth Kirby, the longest serving State Democrat MLC (now retired). While asking questions afterwards, Elizabeth pondered why both parties avoid a Federal ICAC.  Dr Knox-Haly speculated that the differentiation for corruption between our primary two parties, was while the Liberal’s entitled mentality has little insight into their own corruption, “The difference is, that Labor actually has some insight that what they are doing, might be corrupt“.

Electing democracy

The “left wing” stay just marginally behind their similar “right wing” counterparts, for the purpose of declaring their “distinctions” to attract a community of voters who will largely vote for the “lesser of two evils“.  Unfortunately, clever gerrymandering, electoral colleges, systems of disenfranchising classes of voters, legal court challenges and strategic alliances more often than not, ensure the public majority will is ignored.

In the recent American presidential elections, the Democratic candidate (Hillary Clinton) received three million more votes than the Republican candidate (Donald Trump), but due to the electoral college system, the Republicans won the presidency.  Dismissing 3 million people as an example of fraudulent voting is not just unproven, intellectually lazy, ludicrous, and credibility stretching. It is also an acceptable lie, which relieves the “true believer” from any intelligent engagement in politics.

Similary in Australia, according to the AEC 34.73% of the electorate voted Labor and 28.67% Liberal in the last federal election. But political alliances with the Nationals and preference systems ensure the Liberals currently hold power in Australia, although only by the majority of one seat. Adding all Liberal, National and LNP primary votes, only accounts for 41.80% of the 13.5 million voters in Australia. In France, the majority voted against National Front candidate Marine Le Pen, and yet with 21.3% of the vote, she was still one of just two finalists in the last round of French elections (which she lost).

Trump won the American presidency but not the popular vote, because of an historical, artificially weighted voting system.  It is arguable that there may have been good reasons for such weighted voting systems historically. But as times and circumstances have changed, such electoral systems have moved from serving the common good, to more likely serving small select interest groups driven by avarice and greed.  Gerrymandering has largely been discounted in Australia by non-partisan boundary selections, but it is rife in America, even though it loudly and proudly proclaims itself to be the longest lasting “democratic republic” in the world.

Neo-liberal agenda origins

None of these weighted electoral voting systems started out as corrupt. The rebalancing undertaken was merely meant to provide a more equitable representation of the will of all of the people in a polity. For example, to avoid giving greater or overwhelming national influence to more populous urban and coastal areas, over the needs and will of smaller regional inland populations.  A reasonable proposition on the surface of it.

But societies and technology have changed slowly over time, and unfortunately that electoral system has simply not adjusted (enough) to the changing nuances and circumstances of contemporary life.  As a result, the erosion of democracy did not occur suddenly.  The rights of the majority were rather whittled away through successive governments from both “sides” of politics. Privatisation of Public assets in Australia did not start with Conservatives, it began with Bob Hawke and Paul Keating.  The “socialist” Labor party divorced itself gradually from its roots in the Union movement and its support of the working class.  Similarly, Trump is not a new phenomenon.  The pathway there was laid by Democrats and Republicans equally.

Obama was not a “socialist” black man.  He was a privileged, wealthy man complicit with the greedy, über wealthy class he mingled with and still does.  Unlike Iceland, he did not jail the people responsible for crippling his country’s economy, he paid them off. That mistake has cost America dearly. A repetition of a formula that has never worked but is repeatedly applied. The gold coloured glasses of privilege and wealth screened out the faces of the poorer masses, who had otherwise hoped that because he shared a skin colour, his filtered eyes might see their plight. His foreign policy was deplorable when it came to the Middle East, when you consider that Obama bombed seven countries adding to an enormous refugee crisis in Europe.

While I am being harsh with Obama, there are many things that are commendable about his administration, not the least of which is the extraordinary efforts he made to create (the now endangered) Obamacare. To be fair to the balance of this article, you should read the Rolling Stone’s article in regards his successes and failures. The good that a man may do, whether it is Obama or Keating, is oft undermined by what they either failed to address, or any concessions that were made to not ruffle the feathers of the wealthy cocks in the hen house.

Inequality

European lighthouse warning Australian economic/policy shipping
European lighthouse warning Australian economic/policy shipping

Neoliberal politics from both the “left” and the “right” have had a debilitating effect on egalitarian democracies.  Neither “side” of politics (Labor/Liberal or Republican/Democrat) have a policy platform designed to rectify inequality, or our increasingly controlling police state, or our endless pointless involvement in wars on the other side of the planet.  The best we can hope for is to be a little less unequal, by choosing a candidate that leans towards helping the proletarians.  Instead each “side” have internalised neo-liberal conservative values to a lesser or greater extent.   Unless either side tailors a persuasive vision of real world solutions based on evidence – as opposed to ideology – from more successful democracies (i.e. Europe), the downward spiral of inequality and social class division will continue.  Unless the “lefter” side of “right” begin to propose policy platforms that could achieve a shift away from what cripples our economies, then they will continue to lose elections and the public’s faith.

It’s just a step to the left.

Interestingly in Australia, both Labor and Liberal have begun leaning a little to the left (Labor in policy and voting history, and the Liberals with regards to the 2017 budget).  A departure from previous history. Such wins are small and their longer term future uncertain. The positive aspects of the 2017 Liberal government budget and health reforms, still exist in context alongside other classic neoliberal policies, such as tax breaks for the wealthy at the expense of the impoverished. Both Trump and Turnbull share the delusion that trickle down economics is a way forward, despite all the real world evidence that it has never worked.  Wages and jobs remain depressed in both countries and unemployment is the only growth area.

 Death by 1000 cuts.

Very few of the changes that harm our society are rushed, although the Rebublicans are certainly trying it with healthcare.  Once suggesting the nascent beginnings of a possible policy paradigm shift – the very likely soon to be extinct Obamacare – has proven to be merely an ephemeral reform, yielding to an upsurge in the everlasting tidal vices of greed and self interest.  Likewise, the increasing incremental attacks on Medicare in Australia are following a similar path by way of stealth such as freezes and coverage removals leading eventually to an American privatised style medical system.

Of course, even Trump recognises that Australia’s universal healthcare system is currently still a long way from being anything like what they have in America. However, the eventual dissolution of Medicare was never going to be a matter of outright overnight dissolution, in the manner that Trump and the Republicans are seeking to achieve with the dissolution of Obamacare. Rather, it will be the gradual death by one thousand cuts, with Australia gradually devolving to a system where big phama, hospitals, insurance, bio-medical and prosthetic companies garner huge profits at the expense of failing health and ageing demographics of our society.

 Paths once trod we follow.

Are the Roman and American empires fates entwined?
Are the Roman and American empires fates entwined?

With so little political differences in policies, how will any of this change? Being self-contented and tranquil is the domain of spiritual gurus, saints and philosophers, but many of us find our political plight disturbing and seek change. America, although, is as unlikely to change anymore than the Roman Empire once did. Only collapse or revolution ever bought about real change in the Roman Empire. Is America’s only hope therefore, its eventual collapse? And even if that occurs how will it ever satisfy its insatiable vice of greed?  How much longer will it take for Australia to follow that path?  Do we have hope of another, less-traveled path?  Is there hope that we are not as America-lite as some dread?  For example, if you have to go to the pains that Matt Wade did to assert our differences, is that because he is aware of how many similarities we have?  How long will such differences remain? And if either nation changes course, for how long shall we stay that course, guided by the sort of people that are currently attracted to a polity where self aggrandisement and avarice takes precedence over leadership, governance and vision?  Some vices transcend time, revolution and society.

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Filed Under: Foreign, Politicians

457 to?

April 28, 2017 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree 1 Comment

“We are bringing the 457 visa class to an end”, announced Mr Turnbull after Easter, “…We will replace it with two new temporary skills visas.”  With a quick sleight of hand, Turnbull re-branded the much criticised 457 visa with two – as yet unnamed – programs to bring foreign workers to Australia.  Though new rules and security checks were mentioned, he ensured that he would guard us against the impending “threat of permanent citizenship” of intelligent and skilled foreigners whom our employers have sought out.   Rest assured, Turnbull has proclaimed he will keep us safe from having people of this calibre, stay in Australia.

Malcolm will be in search for a new visa number
Malcolm will be in search for a new visa number

As Australia returned to work after the Easter long weekend, Malcolm Turnbull reminded us we were a nation of immigrants, but we should not be overrun by too much more. With the Australian workforce apparently foremost on his mind, Turnbull told the nation (first via Facebook) that the 457-visa program was being scrapped for two new innovative temporary foreign worker schemes to tackle our unemployment issues. In restricting that program and although unnamed, he proposed two new visa programs with fewer job role options, new market tests, English language, skills and experience requirements.

Malcolm doesn't appear to like 457 changes?
Malcolm doesn’t appear to like 457 changes?

The first reminder that comes to the fore concerning these new reforms that “put Australian’s first”, is a reference to the similar policy  I’ve previously heard. Didn’t Julia Gillard propose something similar herself in 2013? Didn’t Malcolm Turnbull criticise her for striking at the “heart of the skilled migration system”?

457 in decline?

Leaving Turnbull’s change of perspective aside, the numbers of 457 workers in Australia have been a subject of much speculation and false rhetoric by politicians seeking to introduce alternative facts and in some cases, outright bigotry. 457 visa numbers have been following a pattern of decline in the last few years but a significant aspect of that in the annual cyclic pattern.

Regarding the 2016 decline of numbers in Australia in any quarter – providing you limit your scope – it looks significant. The first quarter of 2016 (March) there were about 177,390 people in the country working under 457 visas.

Annual patterns of 457 workers in Australia
Annual patterns of 457 workers in Australia

Since then it dropped slightly to 170,580 (June), up a little to 172,187 (Sept), and dropped significantly to 150,219 (Dec).  Now, while these last figures may create the illusion of a significant fall, you need to look at the seasonal pattern of numbers over the last few years. Stepping back and reviewing the last seven years, a pattern emerges for every year. (Rising sharply, slight fall, slight rising, sharp decline) The pattern – as graphed here – will show you that it is about to jump back up again, so there is a deception inherent in quoting the last quarter’s figures of any year as indicative of where 457 numbers are or will be. 457 visa data have a predictable annual cyclical pattern. Turnbull’s timing made before the Department of Immigration released the last quarter’s figures creates the short-term illusion in media reporting that the coalition is indeed clamping down on 457 workers.

Workers come and go. Totals expressed in net movements of visa entrants – over periods such as a year – hide the significant seasonal change in numbers in the country. So when it is stated that 33,340 of the 40,100 primary applicants lodged 457 visa requests in the first quarter of 2016 were successful and that this is a decrease from the same time last year, what is notably absent is how many 457 workers left. This is also dependent on which quarter you choose. So pointing out that – during the third quarter of 2012 under Gillard – that 35,452 foreign workers entered the country, ignores that only 14,665 came in the last quarter of 2009. The coalition cherry picking numbers from specific quarters to disparage Rudd/Gillard’s record – that in actuality had both the highest and lowest intake of 457 Visa workers – is perhaps a tad disingenuous.

Annual cycle aside, it is still true to say the average number of 457 workers in the country since the coalition took power has been larger than the number of government recorded job vacancies in Australia.  To keep it in context, the last 457 worker totals released by the Immigration department said there were 165.9K vacancies in Dec 2016. 457 workers had done their customary annual December quarter drop to 150K, down from 172K in the previous quarter. Unemployment at the time (Roy Morgan’s figures) was over seven times that amount at 1,186K or 9.2%. If you added Morgan’s December underemployment numbers to the unemployment, then you reach a number nearly 16 times the vacancy rate at 2,584K. I am not going to entertain the ABS figures because of their inherent inaccuracy.

So even if you threw out all the 457 visa holders in December representing less than 1% of the workforce and made all their jobs available, it would have little impact on the 2.5 million both under and unemployed. This is particularly the case, as the presumption is there are no available Australians in the market who have the skills necessary to fill these roles. This begs two questions.

  1. Why is it so?
  2. Is it so?

Why 457?

Introduced by John Howard in 1996, the 457 Visa program has been beset by concerns about fraud, corruption and need. Fraud, we will get back to, but the need for it is still a failure of policy. Howard claimed it was to enable employers to address labour shortages in the Australian market and yet after 20 years; we still need to address skill shortages? You’d have to wonder after 20 years, about an economy and a national policy framework that has so failed to raise the skill levels in Australians, that we still need 457 visa workers. How is that “in the national interest” as Mr Turnbull so frequently repeated? A medical degree takes 6yrs, engineering 5yrs and a commerce degree 3yrs.  So what has the government been doing for the last two decades?  Why have we been unable to educate and upskill our population?  Why is this foreign labour market even necessary? To answer that, we need to go back initially to Howard and ask how he began to prepare our children.

As a western nation which once boasted of free education for its population, the growing restriction of education to the people has had consequences for our labour market. Howard changed how education was funded by allocating considerable funding to private schools and undercutting public schools. Students drifted away from public schools to the better-funded private schools, where they could afford the luxury. The public education system retained a community of poorer demographics with less time or capacity for higher education and an increasing inequality of educational results. The social class division between the affluent and the underprivileged then began at school for children. Two decades later the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) survey shows Australian children falling behind in education.  Segregated our schooling system by either academic or social class boundary have been largely to blame for our children’s poor performance. Our ranking for investment on the OECD league tables for education is 22 out of 37 1n the OECD.  Small expenditure is followed by weak results.

Whitlam onwards.

Leaving high school for TAFE or University has done little to revoke the class distinctions established by Howard’s redistribution of education funding. Whitlam abolished fees for TAFE and university students and provided support for apprenticeships through the National Apprenticeship Assistance Scheme (NAAS). Hawke reduced funding and re-established costs to students as well as changing labour market programs around apprenticeships and introduced traineeships as a significant response to rising youth unemployment. Trade apprenticeships flourished as the government focused on traineeships. Mr Keating started governments down the neo-liberal path of privatising the public sector.  The problem with privatising the public sector was that these were the main generators of apprenticeship training such as electricity utilities, telecommunications, defence industries, rail, roads, and Australian airlines.  Howard also continued to undermine the public sector which contributed to a reduction in skills training – via public sector apprenticeships. Howard quickly consolidated apprenticeships and traineeships under a single umbrella and wrested it away to unions and into the hands of employers. Skewing support for apprenticeships profoundly in the interests of employers was followed by a decline in training delivery, apprenticeship completions, pay and conditions.  None of which was aided by the further dismantling of the industrial relations system, through the introduction of enterprise bargaining.  While Rudd and Gillard dismantled Howard’s “work choices”, they still followed the traditions of the Hawke/Keating legacy by “make[ing] concessions to the big mining companies, reduc[ing] corporate tax, and restrict[ing] unions rights and push[ing] through spending cuts to maintain a budget surplus.” The decimation of manufacturing under Abbott destroyed yet another training base for trades and reduced the intake of apprentices.  The budget cuts of his administration also severely impacted apprenticeships.  Tracking the causes, consequences and level of damage to our employment economy have been made all the more complicated by Abbott’s savage dismantling of expert advisory panels as compiled by Sally McManus.

The combination of factors including the dismantling of education, expert advice, the industrial relations system and the public sector meant that a four-year apprenticeship in the building trade gets replaced by a shallow sixteen week CBT course as the bare minimum for that particular role.  The results were described as “a disaggregation of skill which is ‘modularised’, ‘flexible’ and ‘atomised’ … [that] will ultimately leave skills ‘fragmented’ at their core.”

Many apprenticeships as a means of training up in skills for increasing levels of youth unemployment have mostly vanished by comparison. For example, Federal funding for NSW Tafe reached it’s zenith in 2011 and after that decreased.  Deregulation of training provision meant funding to non-TAFE, and private providers increased by 20%. The consequence of this produced the rise of dodgy private providers of vocational education and also the unscrupulous practices by some private providers which have become a scandal in Australia.

No matter the skill training, your always schooled in Finance!
No matter the skill training, you’re always schooled in Finance!

Add too, what Abbott euphemistically referred to as “Fee Deregulation”. Attempts to rectify the class based education system via Gonski funding were scrapped, and the vocational training sector simply received new student loan systems, all of which has done little to encourage Australians to “buy” education. The result has been a drop-off in the teaching in Australia as students fall by the wayside, get ripped off or – even if they do complete their degrees – are faced with indexed debts that limit their employment capacities.  All this in a market of decreasing full-time jobs, low vacancies and huge competition from other under and unemployed members of the workforce. Skills shortages have been a function of deteriorating access to Education driven by political policy.

Is there a skills shortage?

The distribution of 457 visa workers
The distribution of 457 visa workers

It is, of course, true to say we do have skill shortages. The question as to what extent any occupation is genuinely suffering from a talent shortage – is problematic. Questions arise as to whether the request for that skill just represents an opportunity for an employer to take advantage of a compliant, cheap and de-unionised workforce. Most reports whether from Flinders University or the National Institute of Labour studies  have all rather reflected the opinion of the Flinders University report that “Despite the attention paid to skill shortages, the evidence used to evaluate their incidence and the causes and responses by firms remains thin.”

The problem predominately is that the labour market testing for skills shortages will still be conducted by employers – not by an independent panel.  Employer “testing” will do nothing to affect the corruption at the core of exploitation of 457 workers.

Turnbull has announced that 216 job roles that are not covered by the renamed 457 visa scheme. The problem is that Turnbull’s new visa jobs list would affect just 9 per cent of the current 457 visa holders. So mostly he has cut an already redundant list of skills requirements – at least a quarter of which have had no application for in the last year. Turnbull has not addressed the issue of employer rorts because the determination of a genuine skills shortage has been so easy to defraud. Underpaying 457 workers has been pervasive amongst dishonest businesses.

In the absence of a plan to rectify education, the public sector, independent labour market analysis, unemployment, jobs and growth Malcolm Turnbull’s reinvention of the 457 visa scheme does little to aid Australia out of the economic malaise. Without attention to this issue now,  we’ll be obsessing over skill shortages and “temporary” foreign workers in another twenty years.

Filed Under: Employment, Privatisation

Bribery or Donations

April 22, 2017 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

There is a growing awareness that our conservative government’s policy needs a little work or is that a massive understatement?  The Sydney Morning Herald listed just a few policies that it had no problem in describing as “Bad Policies“.

Politics, Corporates and corruption
Politics, Corporates and corruption

The article (in the link aforementioned) doesn’t touch on the one cause and two reasons for bad policy decisions. That being – Money driving Bribery and Financial Corruption! Neither reason alone but a combination of both –  as well as to whom they are directed – is necessary. Major industrial complexes that can afford significant donations to the Liberal party keep their industry alive and prosperous. The call for a Federal ICAC has been growing.  Not one like the NSW ICAC which has been recently neutered by the very party that is currently being caught with their collective hands in the cookie jar.  Especially as Australia’s ranking in global corruption index has been falling.

For example: consider the case for Mining versus Tourism.

Mining interests are primarily big consolidated industries heavily subsidised by the government who return portions of that welfare subsidisation, by way of donations to political parties. Despite Minings falling demand on world markets, falling contribution to our GDP and the diminishing employment of Australians, they continue to be supported as “welfare” recipients to the tune of around $18B. However, Mining was only paying taxes of around $12.7 billion (in 2013 according to Deloittes). Inclusive to this they are exporting our finite resource to foreign markets and actively channelling profits overseas to tax havens rather than back into our economy. It makes one think supporting these grifters is a losing proposition, long term. Taxes paid by –

  • Financial redirections
    Financial redirections

    Adani’s Abbot Point Terminal: Nothing;

  • Exxon Mobil Australia: Zilch;
  • Chevron Australia, Peabody Australia, and Whitehaven: Nada.

Somebody paid that $12.7 Billion of the $18B we paid them.

 

Tax avoidance losses to Australia
Tax avoidance losses to Australia

Consider the case of one company where in 2014-15: BHP Billiton contributed $1.7B in taxes on $33B income although they declared only $6.3B as taxable but still paid under the 30% company tax threshold. BHP Billiton utilises its Singapore marketing office to be channelling iron ore sales and profits overseas to avoid Tax. A practice protected by our political legislation and given our Prime Minister hordes $200M in the Cayman Islands; such protective policies are not going to change. In fact, Turnbull’s latest legislated decision to cut $24B in taxes for corporates means these companies will contribute even less! Is a picture forming for any of you yet?

It is not just local mining magnates such as Gina Rinehart who bribed the political class. Foreign Chinese mining interests also participated.  One of these was Sally Zou, who alone donated $400,000 to the liberals. When Origin, Santos and Beach Energy can contribute about $226,000 to the LNP to keep fracking alive, you can be guarantee legislation will provide aid to keep them in place on farms around Australia.

Tourism is where the real money is.

Tourism - diversified & small businesses
Tourism – diversified & small businesses

Tourism, on the other hand, is dominantly comprised of diverse micro & small businesses that are not heavily subsidised and yet contribute $87.3 Billion to our economy according to government records. In June 2012 there were over 283,000 tourism businesses in Australia. The individual business interests do not contribute as significantly to the political donation process/bribery and soliciting donations.  Bribes from them are difficult, because of the sheer logistics of chasing numerous entities to give – from what little margins they make – to maintain the government protection racket.

As the mining sector is largely dominated by a few large firms, it is far easier to approach the much smaller numbers of mining CEOs and therefore extract significant financial support in return for subsidies and legislative protection. Only .5% of tourism businesses are large companies – there are still over 1000 of them. One can, therefore, begin to see why tourism doesn’t get enormous political support.

LNP's preferred mining project.
LNP’s preferred mining project.

Thus, when an Indian mining company “Adani” wants to drink up the Great Artesian Water Basin and pollute an already two-thirds bleached Barrier Reef, guess whose side our political elite preference? This bias exists despite Reef tourism being a direct contributor (according to Deloittes) to our economy of over $7.04 Billion. Indirectly, Reef Tourism contributes another $3.1B to our economy and employs well over twice the number of people employed by mining. The Liberal’s do not come down on the side of who makes the most money or who supports the largest employment of Australians – as many might believe they do.

Conservative governments are not interested in Australians making money or employing people. They come down on the side of those who can contribute or donate more efficiently to their wealth, employment and power base.

Filed Under: Politicians, Taxes

MOAB meets Afghanistan

April 21, 2017 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

America once again participates in its favourite past-time of bombing countries that can in no way retaliate.  There is a word that describes people who act that way, but the name alludes me.

Obama's bomb tally
Obama’s bomb tally

It’s not just Trump or republicans for whom this is an engaging “sport”, as the last few administrations have bombed the “proverbial” out of Afghanistan.   Worth noting: The Obama administration dropped at least 26,171 bombs in 2016 alone, although distributed unevenly across seven countries (and of course Afghanistan received some of that “rainfall”.  The seven countries he did bomb were Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and Somalia and Trump’s national Muslim ban included 5 of these countries.

How to drop the Mother of all bombs.
How to drop the Mother of all bombs.

This time, however, America set about to destroy a facility they built in Afghanistan. At least you can assume that the MOAB bomb was dropped with pin point accuracy to cause the most damage. Especially since the CIA would have likely retained the blueprints of the facility they built in collaboration with Osama Bin Laden. Spending $314M building a bomb – that by itself cost $16M each –  is an expensive way to destroy a constructed facility which had cost untold millions in the first place.

All this for a country that can’t afford the “horrendous expense” inherent in serving meals to the elderly, as Trump decides that Meals on Wheels is a burden the economy can’t afford. As many a pundit has observed, money to conduct war is always in plentiful supply. For example, here in Australia, $195B on defence is affordable, but increases in spending on health, welfare and education are not. The hypocrisy and bullying of nations previously beaten into submission to the point that – because of America – a violent caliphate arises called Daesh/ISIS. It has repeatedly been said “wars against states which do not pose an imminent threat to America’s national security increases the threat of terrorism“. Having done that, it doesn’t help if you start funding and supplying equipment to these terrorists as America did for a long time for ISIS.

ISIS loves Toyota
ISIS loves Toyota

The shock discovery for the American senate, for example, that Toyota appeared to be supplying ISIS with massive numbers of Toyota vehicles, was ultimately revealed to be sourced from the America US state Dept dropping crate loads of vehicles into Syria. Without America, ISIS would never have been as well armed, trained or supplied. It would have died as a movement in the Middle East without the American military education and equipment to support them. Presently America is bombing their creations in both the insurgency they funded and the facilities they build and funded, yet they apparently can’t spare to resolve the poverty of their own country.

Not unlike, in an obscure manner, Gerhard Richter taking to 60 of his photo-based paintings with a box cutter and matches. Odd coincidental numbering, but wasn’t that the number of Tomahawk missiles fired at Syria recently at an Airfield that was operational 24 hours later? OK, OK, I am stretching my analogues to the point of ridiculousness but perhaps my weird segues will induce you to remember the facts.  The truth is that neither America or Australia should be putting air-force, troops, or bombs into the region.  That is presuming we want to establish peace in the middle-east, which admittedly is probably an invalid assumption.

The CIA is a fan when it suits them
The CIA is a fan when it suits them

It is small wonder that when Wikileaks revealed this rampant corruption and hypocrisy by America that the CIA director, Mike Pompeo,  branded them a “hostile intelligence service“.  Odd change of face as Mike was apparently a fan when the information Wikileaks supplied suited his agenda.  But for now, Julian Assange is the “bad guy”?  Really? So what does that make America in the light of everything else!?

 

Filed Under: Foreign, Race

Debt Collection

January 19, 2017 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

Centrelink
Centrelink

Centrelink has been fraudulently issuing debt notices to people who owe no money.  Persons so identified are then harassed and threatened to the point that they pay this un-owed debt rather than being penalised by a system, which they already know actively disparages them.

Labor’s Anthony Albanese, while being concerned about this government’s debt collection said, “No one would argue [against] that if someone has a debt from Centrelink, had payments to which they were not entitled, then it should be repaid“.  I would argue to the contrary.

The Poverty of Welfare.

Centrelink’s services exist to ensure the disbursement of social security payments whether that be for unemployment, or aid for families, carers, the disabled or indigenous. That financial aid in many cases has rarely increased, and in some has decreased in terms of CPI value. In the case of the baseline unemployment benefits, though indexed to the CPI, “there have been no legislated changes to real Newstart rates in over 20 years”, in fact since 1996.

Government benefits verses the poverty line
Government benefits verses the poverty line

This has raised legitimate concerns that the Newstart allowance is well below the poverty line,  which is an issue championed by:

  • the Unemployed Workers Union,
  • the Australian Council of Social Services,
  • Anglicare,
  • and the ABC (although that was prior to it’s current management).

Rorters! from Welfare or Multinationals?

The erroneous perception of the wealth of welfare
The erroneous perception of the wealth of welfare

These inadequate payments entrench poverty, inhibiting rather then aiding workforce participation. Mobility, presentation, education, literacy, and skill acquisition all cost money.  Financial stress adds to social marginalisation. Bullying by the job networks and policy victimisation generates social ostracisation in the community, and also limits possibilities for the unemployed and disabled.  So sorry  Anthony, but I am very much inclined to believe that if anyone got a little more money out of this dysfunctional system than the government was prepaired to provide, then they deserve to keep it.  Any extra money would only increase their chances of improving their lot, including their ability to contribute to the economy and to finding work.  Instead of attempting to recoup $3.5 billion in alleged “welfare debts”, why is the government not energetically recouping $6 billion from the tax dodging multinationals? 

What about getting a Job?

The divergence between the Government's unemployment numbers & Roy Morgans.
The divergence between the Government’s unemployment numbers & Roy Morgans.

Numbers don’t lie but as the ABS knows, how they get presented matters.  Apart from the financial constraints, there is the statistical improbability of finding work in any way. Roy Morgan demonstrates unemployment figures in December 2016 were 9.2%, which involves 1.186 million people. In fact, when you take into account underemployment, which has risen another 10.8%, the pool of potential job seekers rises to 2,584 million.  All of these job seekers are competing for approximately just 163,100 jobs Australia wide.  (Nov 2016 Dept. of Employment IVI stats.) In the worst-case scenario, there are at close to an average of 16 people for every single job in the market and that doesn’t take into account the following:

  • the new year’s rush of young school leavers,
  • foreign workers with reciprocal work rights,
  • current workers seeking to change jobs or
  • the new entrants to the unemployment lines as car manufacturing in this country vanishes.

And now, just to add to the psychological and financial pressures inherent in looking for work, the government has come up with a new strategy to inhibit your search, by occupying your time with digging up old payroll records. The news of this new tactic is ever-present.   20,000 people a week receive notices of debts – allegedly to recoup incorrect welfare payments. All of which are triggered by an automated debt recovery system, which is under intense criticism because of what is essentially, the (intentionally?) flawed logic of a computer algorithm.

Erroneous mathematics.

Centerlink’s computers (IBM machines in case you were wondering) are attempting to match tax office data with Centrelink records to determine if there are discrepancies between Centerlink financial information and Tax office records.

But an inherent incompatibility exists between these two data sources, and it is a matter of timing. Centerlink has information about its payments made fortnightly, and possibly data relevant to jobs which clients were offered and accepted.  Centerlink is unlikely to be aware of the continuing circumstances of that job or subsequent ones found independently in the course of any given financial year. The tax office has only an annual summary of income. There is no breakdown into weeks, fortnights or months.  There is no breakdown of pay rates, when it was specifically known they earned it, or what changes to income streams occurred in the course of the year.  The tax office data is therefore incompatible with Centerlink’s data.  The government is comparing apples with oranges.

Despite this, Centrelink’s algorithm takes your yearly income as reported to the ATO, and averages it over each fortnight of the year. As any primary school age statistician would recognise, an annual “average” apportionment cannot measure individual fluctuations and is a flawed measure in any given fortnight. To assumes absolute consistency for all fortnights is absurd on a number of levels. The only group that may get close to this pattern are the fully employed and even then, there are allowances, overtime, uneven hours, holidays, sick leave, RDOs, wage rises, wage falls, changes of roles, and any manner of occurrences that will alter the payroll for any individual over any given week/fortnight. Certainly, the most unstable employment group and the most likely to have variants are the unemployed. It is common sense that if you are dealing with people who move in and out of employment in any given year where they may move from poverty one fortnight to sufficiency (or if lucky, excess) the next. It is common sense that averaging their yearly income will produce inaccurate results by which to measure any given actual fortnight.

Guilty before proven Innocent!

The Centrelink Ad
The Centrelink Ad

So what does Centerlink do? They take the ACTUAL fortnightly records held by Centerlink along with any limited volunteered data and try to cross-reference it against a fortnightly averaging of annual taxation income data.  The normal presumption of statistical probability would tell you the likelihood of such figures matching for this demographic, is extremely unlikely. You would have to presume the mismatches will be the most common occurrence. Any programmer (and I worked as one for most of my career) would tell you such a matching is deeply flawed. Therefore clients should be approached with the assumption of innocence. In the absence of specific information in Centerlink’s internal records for discrepancies, inquires should be made tentatively as to why there might be a prima facie case for a mismatch in numbers. The onus of proof should also be on Centerlink (and not the client), as the process is so obviously flawed.  Something fully recognised internally within Centerlink, if not by the political policy makers. In the face of the inherently flawed logic of this approach, innocence till proven guilty would be the legally prudent course of action.

Debt assessment is followed in 3 weeks with debt claims
Debt assessment is followed in 3 weeks with debt claims

So what does the government decide is the best course of action? To implement a process that presumes people to be guilty (of debt) till proven innocent. 20,000 Welfare recipients a week have been receiving notices that they have 21 days to prove their “innocence”, or be hit with penalties. These include a 10 per cent debt recovery fee, jail time, a restriction on travel. The event for which they are being investigated may be anywhere up to six years in the past. Some recipients are paying up, not because they accept that they actually owe the debt, but simply because they can’t locate evidence from past years, or because they fear the repercussions of a punishing government bureaucracy. If you have ever had to deal with Centerlink or any of its private job network partners you will be well aware of how punitive they are.  Surprisingly to the government – apparently – this is producing a backlash.

Flaws and error rates.

Tudge's apparent ignorance
Tudge’s apparent ignorance

Human Services Minister, Alan Tudge, insists the automated process is not flawed and despite protests to discontinue the letters he is forging ahead with gusto.  For Trudge to declare, “he wasn’t aware of anyone who was completely convinced they don’t owe money but have been given a debt notice” is either grotesque wilful ignorance or a lie in the face of a growing body of evidence otherwise.  When even “Liberal Senator Eric Abetz acknowledged there seemed to be problems with the system“, then you know it has to be disastrous.

The one aspect of this (that nobody appears to be talking about) is the sheer workload this must be creating for Centerlink. Let’s assume Alan Tudge is correct that the error rate is only 20%, which is contrary to what centerlink whistle-blowers reveal is the case.  Giving him the full benefit of the doubt, 20K letters a week represents 4K fraudulent claims a week. Which is 16K a month and 192K a year. After 1.04 million data matching discrepancy letters in a year, they will not even cover all the numbers of unemployed in this country (1.186 million – see above), let alone all the other welfare recipients for other reasons. Alan Trudge expects the system to “generate 1.7 million compliance notices”, which by his own estimates means at least 340,000 letters in error. Of course, the Centrelink compliance officer whistle-blower that spoke to the Guardian suggests the percentages of errors are vastly larger.  Given that all of this was not only easily identifiable but unavoidably self-evident prior to the system being switched on, how is any of this not fraudulent?

Voters & workers affected.

At the current letter-writing rate (if they can maintain it) this will take over a year and a half to complete, although Mr Trudge thinks it will take 3 years. By then Australian Lawyers will be in a feeding frenzy of class action suits with minimally 340,000 clients with legitimate grievances with the government. This will presumably still be an ongoing issue by the next election.  According to 2014 Centerlink data there were 14.459 million Social Services payments made in the March 2014 Quarter to 50% of the population – interestingly, a reduction from previous numbers.  There are only 13.5 million voters – according to AEC – who voted in the last election. This is not a vote winner.  But presuming you are not expecting to win the next election, leaving this mess on another party’s door to cleanup provides a damaging handicap.  The amazingly short-term memory of the public, gives the coalition an advantageous opportunity to disparage what the next government will have to do to rectify the situation.

Access issues for Centrelink online facilitates debt being levied
Access issues for Centrelink online facilitates debt being levied

Putting aside the legal costs, consider then the other real cost in man-hours for Centerlink to resolve each erroneous issue when there are minimally 4000 cases a week. To keep on top of the “erroneous” case load – if Mr Trudge is correct – requires the equivalent of 105 Centerlink officers processing each claim within an hour in a 38 hour week.  This presumes the ability for each officer to address, research, confirm and redress an error on each letter in one hour and do no other administrative work. There appears to be mounting evidence it takes much more time. Plus that does not factor in the equivalent of the 421 Centerlink officers devoting a single hour in a 38 hour week, that you’d need to process the claims – and not fall behind – which Mr Trudge believes are valid. But these figures are conservative. As I previously explained, the error rate is far larger according to the Guardian’s Centerlink whistle-blower.  The backlog of work is just going to be extraordinary, if it isn’t already. No wonder it is so difficult to get through to Centerlink on the phone. It was nearly impossible to get Centerlink on the phone when there was only 20,000 debt recovery letters sent in a year but now that they are doing it every week …. ? As for other means of communication, even compliance officers are complaining they cannot access the Centerlink online system efficiently, let alone customers.

Opportunities or Overload?

In truth, even if Alan Trudge did put an end to it; Centrelink will probably still be spending thousands of man-hours dealing with the consequences of this flawed and fraudulent system. The same would be true if the Commonwealth Ombudsman began investigating Centrelink’s debt recovery system and put a stop to it – disregarding the costs in legal redress, which are sure to follow.  Nothing about this course of action makes any logical sense, except to see this as class warfare against our vulnerable and easily disparaged citizens.

Well at least, it will probably increase employment opportunities in the community at Centerlink that will giving a few folk some extra, well sought after work. But wait, isn’t there a public service full time employment freeze?

——//——

P.S. 03/03/2017

Senate inquiry into Centrelink launched from 8th Feb 2017.
Senate inquiry into Centrelink launched from 8th Feb 2017.

I add this postscript because I wish to cover one of the points of mystery I’d not been able to discern.  How the government (Alan Tudge in particular) could repeatedly claim Centrelink’s average wait time on a call was 12 minutes.  Despite:

  1.  when repeated anecdotal evidence said it was much longer.  Statistical evidence being more credible (if collected accurately) than anecdotal.
  2. the government’s claims were not in accordance with the aforementioned backlog , as logically it should have been longer.

As you may be aware the Senate on the 8th of February confirmed an inquiry into the automated debt system would be launched.  A Senate question raised by Labor senator Louise Pratt finally got to the bottom of this mystery on Thursday 2nd of March.

“A transfer to a new line becomes a new inquiry, and the clock would start again,” Human Services staffer Barry Jackson said during a Senate estimates hearing.

Basically by Centrelink staff transferring your call to another phone on a regular basis and only measuring time between two specific phones, then the “wait-time” is kept low.  Centrelink does not measure the total time any client spends on the phone but how long you are connected to a specific phone within Centrelink.

It is a contrived and deliberate deception so Alan Tudge can make a claim that call waiting times are short.

Filed Under: Employment, Politicians

Cuba – farewell to Fidel

December 27, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

The passing of Fidel Castro marks a change that a generation the grew up with the drama of the missile crisis through to the first visit by an American President to Cuba.  A period of history of high drama and political upheaval, he will be remembered by a diverse range of opinions.  This is just mine.

Dictator

Pence on Castro
Pence on Castro

Issues such as Fidel Castro are never black and white. Yes, he was a “dictator” in so far as he led his country for 47 years after overthrowing American backed Batista. Yes, people died, were shot or imprisoned during and after the rebellion, but no man is entirely one thing or another. His story need a few shades of grey. A grey not conceded when Mike Pence described him as a tyrant and suggested the Cuban people were oppressed and in need of freedom and democracy. An interesting take from his “democracy”.

Who bombed what?

Obama's bomb tally
Obama’s bomb tally

I note that America has bombed 7 countries during the last president’s term of office which was a fraction of Castro’s presidency. Castro dropped doctors in third world countries while America dropped bombs. Mike Pence was very critical of Fidel on his death suggesting too that having been “starved of Democracy” that they might welcome it now. But America castigating Fidel is like the pot calling the kettle black. How many countries did Cuba bomb and what contribution to the worldwide mass movement of refugees displaced from their homes is Cuba responsible for? Did he jail and torture people to the extent America has? Guantanamo is run by which country? Which country has the highest incarceration rate in prisons on earth (including China) and despite falling crime rates? [I’ll give you a clue, it was imprisoning 2.2M in 2013] Which country created, funded and armed Isis? Which country has consistently undermined the Middle East?

Celebrations or mourning?

Thousands of people gather at Revolution Square Antonio Maceo during a public tribute to late Cuban leader Fidel Castro in, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, 03 December 2016.
Thousands of people gather at Revolution Square Antonio Maceo during a public tribute to late Cuban leader Fidel Castro in, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, 03 December 2016.

Why are Fidel’s own people people not celebrating his departure if he was so evil? Why are they mourning him in the thousands in streets where herds of people are so thick and miles in length for his funeral? Have a googled look at the crowds recorded in “Plaza de la Revolución Antonio Maceo en Santiago de Cuba” for his memorial service. That’s not what you’d think “oppressed” folk might do. When Thatcher died the country was positively jubilant. The upper class were outraged at how happy folks were singing “The witch is dead!“.

Children & Justice

Which is the only country in the Americas that is not only without child malnourishment but was described by the UNICEF as “the best example of protection of children” (by Juan José Ortiz) especially as it had the lowest child death rate and negligible homeless street children? Not so many homeless adults for that matter. People are accommodated because housing is kept cheap. Yet in America the number of foreclosed houses outnumber the homeless. Yes, I know some of Cuba’s accommodation has been in Jails for some. Arbitrary detentions and short-term imprisonments are far more prevalent in America. The citizens of Cuba walk the streets and have homes to go to. Incarceration even on a per capita basis compared to America (510 per 100K in Cuba verses 693 in America – and that does not include juveniles, inmates in US territories or American military facilities – have I mentioned Guantanamo? — Oh yes I have.). Political prisoners, restrictions on freedom of expression (i.e. Snowden) travel restrictions and prisoner conditions are criticisms that can be leveled at both Cuba and America. Who do you think is better or worse?

Health Care

Cuban healthcare
Cuban healthcare

Which country has had produced over 124,000 health professionals who have worked in over 154 countries since 1961, hosts 3432 medical students from 23 nations studying medicine and exports hundreds of them to fight diseases in foreign third world countries ? The US secretary of state, John Kerry, was praising which country for sending “165 health professionals and it plans to send nearly 300 more” in 2014 to fight Ebola in Liberia, Sierra Leone & Guinea? Just what did America send?  Instead of Doctors, they sent troops. I get why civil control is important in an outbreak but what does it tell you about the differences in the countries when one sends doctors and the other troops?  Which country developed 4 vaccines against cancers including lung cancer (but has all their pharmaceuticals blocked by the USA) and was the first country to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV as validated by WHO? Which country suffers from greater rates of obesity and diabetes? Which has the higher rates on drug and alcohol abuse? Which has the higher rates on School gun violence, rape on campuses, pollution, suicides, spousal abuse, etc … need I go on?

Education

Havanan schoolclass
Havanan schoolclass

With that health record, an education record that creates a Student:Teacher ratio of 12:1, and a youth illiteracy rate in Cuba is close to zero and is the best education system in Latin America, I have to ask, what does America offer in terms of Health and Education? Certainly not an education system that is 100% subsidised by the government. And Obamacare? Please don’t make me laugh. In Australia we have Medicare and it pi**e* all over Obamacare, even if our current neo-conservative government is trying desperately to dismantle it. Actually there are a lot of countries who’s health care systems could do that!

Democracy?

Instead the MSM’s coverage is insular & compliant with the “official narrative” story without a perspective on how the third world looked at Cuba. It’s a very first world capitalist perspective. Cuba has flourished in it’s own manner and even survived while under an embargo by the most powerful country in the world. As for Mike Pence hoping that Cuba would welcome “democracy” now, if he really thinks any country in the world wants your “democracy”, if the result is “Trump”, then he is delusional. Dude, you have no hope of installing “democracy” there, if America is the example!

 

Filed Under: Foreign

The myth of Jobs Growth

December 22, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree 1 Comment

Turnbull’s “Jobs and Growth” campaign inspired many in Australia to vote for whom they believed were the better economic managers of our economy.  In the first quarter of their second term in office, Australia is showing declining growth in the economy and a similar decline in full-time jobs.

The Slave Trade

Ancient Slave Markets
Ancient Slave Markets

The Hebrews and Greeks regarded work as a curse because “work” was performed by slaves and the underclass.  Placing a positive moral value on “work” is a relatively recent invention emerging out of the Protestant Reformation.   Max Weber, a German economic sociologist, wrote the book, “The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism“ coining the term the “Protestant work ethic“.  The concept of the religious work ethic became secularised to support the mounting new industrial system which required workers who would accept long hours and poor working conditions.

The rise and Fall of Unionism
The rise and Fall of Unionism

The unionism of the 19th century reshaped much of the makeup of “work” as we know it today.  Consider ‘fair and reasonable’ wages (the 1907 Harvester Decision), better wages for women (as high as 54% of male wages by 1930), weekend penalty rates (from 1947), shorter working hours (down to 40 hrs in 1948) and four week holidays (from 1973).   Work health and safety reforms (commencing in 1984) and more consultative supervisory styles & policies (Industrial Relations Reform Act 1993) continued to transform working relationships.

In 1996 Howard introduced the Workplace Relations Act which was later amended in 2005 (known as Work Choices).   Workplace industrial relations began to change, but not necessarily for the better.  Anti-union rhetoric accelerated despite as Greg Jericho noted the lack of  “strong evidence that changes to the IR system will actually improve economic growth or productivity“.

Diminishing working day

Falling compensation for productivity
Falling compensation for productivity

The problem for many Australians is having access to paid work in the first place. A full day’s work (38 hr/weeks established in 1981) for a full day’s pay is a diminishing luxury in Australia.  Full-time worker numbers are diminishing are diminishing in preference for part-time work.   The “fair day’s pay” principle suffers as wages are increasingly stagnating.

Australian economy unexpectedly contracted 0.5 percent
Australian economy unexpectedly contracted 0.5 percent

The economy’s poor performance has been reflected in the September Quarter  GDP’s figures, contracting by .5%.  Australia has not experienced a contraction in GDP that severe since the GFC of 2008.  This result was predictable, despite the Treasurer’s rhetoric talking up the economy.  While some factors affect failing economies, our poor employment record is one, as Victoria University Senior Research Fellow Janine Dixon said, “Fixing unemployment would boost production, incomes and living standards.”  Into this environment came the Coalition mantra proclaiming they were the party of “Jobs and Growth” that we voted for at the beginning of this contracted quarter.

The Measures of Unemployment.

So, are we putting our growing army of eager workers, to good use to recharge our vitiated economy?  The International Business Times claimed misleadingly, “From 5.7 percent in July, Australia’s unemployment rate further went down to 5.6 percent in August. It is the lowest joblessness rate since the Coalition government came to power in September 2013.”  While some conservatives may claim we were back on track, it does not stand up to scrutiny. The workforce size when the LNP took power was smaller, and of course, percentages are relative to that magnitude.  Using percentages hides real numbers. These are:

  • ABS’s 5.6% = 697,100 people unemployed in Sept 2013 with workforce of 12,343,000
  • ABS’s 5.6% = 705,100 people unemployed in Sept 2016 with workforce of 12,652,000

In term of actual numbers unemployed 5.6% in 2013, is 8000 less than 5.6% in 2016.

Bloomberg's observations
Bloomberg’s observations

For the Australians that can acquire jobs, the makeup of that employment has changed. In September of 2013 full-time employment was increasing at a greater rate than part-time work but this has incurred a reversal. A trend which has not escaped international attention. As Alan Austin has pointed out in November 2016, “Over the last three years, there has been a significant shift from full-time to part-time jobs“.

To keep this critique relevant to the GDP downturn the statistics herein are pertinent to the September quarter unless otherwise stated.  (October’s ABS stats for unemployment were the same and November’s worse.)

September end of quarter stats

Job Vacancies in Australia
Job Vacancies in Australia

The Australia wide Dept of Employment IVI index for job vacancies for September was 161.5K. Vacancies were down from 163.5K in August.  The ratio of vacancies to unemployed was 1:4.4. However, ABS’s standard for measuring unemployment hides thousands of unemployed people as I’ve explained in a previous article. The more accurate Roy Morgan’s unemployed statistic is 1.101 million or 8.5%. The ratio is then 1:6.8! If you add their underemployment numbers, you reach 2.103 million or 16.2%, and the ratio becomes 1:13.

Quarterly variation between ABS & Roy Morgan
Quarterly variation between ABS & Roy Morgan

How then do we consider the Australia residents, who are not significantly measured by ABS as part of our workforce because of the 12/16 month rule? For example, foreign citizens with reciprocal work rights (i.e. Canadian, British, New Zealanders, etc). On October 31, 2016, there were 1,472,640 potential temporary foreign workers in Australia, 660,000 of which New Zealanders, 486,700 of which were students.  Then there are the much maligned 457 visas holders in Australia, which the Dept of Immigration September Statistics number at 172,178. (Primary & secondary applicants)

What else should be accounted for here? Available vacancies examined in a report by Anglicare’s Jobs Availability Snapshot. Leon Moulden said on the nature of job vacancies showing that only 13.1% were for low skilled jobs. Applying the same maths Leon did to the vacancies available; this would represent only 21,000 vacancies Australia-wide apply to people without significant skill levels and education.  The ACSF from the Board of Studies in NSW scores literacy and numeracy into five levels.  The program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies shows that 60% of people not in the labour force have competencies of less than Level 3. While people “not in the labour force” is a wider net than the unemployed, 60% of Roy Morgan’s  evaluation of 1.101 million unemployed people is 660,000.  While this is only a rough estimate with a significant error variant, 660K people competing for only 21K vacancies with little skill entry is a major obstacle to entry. Now to absorb any possible margin of error, I have not factored in under-employed and foreign workers.

Enough with the numbers!

Let’s now depart from the maths and discuss the sociological issues that prevent people from finding work.  Some media love to amplify the perception that everyone who is unemployed, is a dole bludger, or the latest put down acronym, NEETS.  It’s their dominant strategy to divide welfare from the working class without a single consideration of any other mitigating factors, such as:

  • location suitability (interstate travel, home locality, & costs/inconvenience of changing residence),
  • employer discrimination, (bigotry, racism & misogyny),
  • accessibility limitations, (limits of public transport, car, bus, train, disability ramps, etc.),
  • boundaries of literacy, skill, experience, qualifications & education levels,
  • competition for jobs, (705K [smaller ABS nos. only] people writing 20 letters a month for 161.5K jobs = an average 87 applications a month per vacancy),
  • financial limitations (For many surviving off the dole puts you below the poverty line),
  • financial burdens (family, mortgage versus inadequate wage levels),
  • injury, health & pre-existing illness or disability issues,
  • occupational risks inherent in the job, (i.e. firemen, riggers)
  • your status as the principal carer of a child, (i.e. single parents or guardians)
  • security clearance issues (i.e. Defence Force, ASIO, child safety, commercial sensitivities),
  • illegal under award payment, shockingly poor wages or condition by employers.

In summary, there are not enough jobs and the majority of available jobs are only accessible to highly skilled, mobile, and versatile workers.

Back to first principles – slavery?

7 days a week / $11 an hour
7 days a week / $11 an hour

This picture isn’t yet complete.   The Australian workplace for low skilled work is notorious for underpayment of wages  (see 7-Eleven convenience stores,  food distributors, restaurants and cafes).  These are just the ones we hear about when addressed in court.  Consider also those where actions are not taken, such as the Wollongong student’s vent on social media about employers paying far below award wages.  But the apologists might cry, at least they are receiving some money!  If you’re still of that view, then you didn’t read the last link to the concluding line which said, “Not only are employers looking for free labour, young people are putting themselves forward for unpaid work trials in the desperate hope they lead to a job“. So what has been our government’s response?  An institutionalisation of the PaTH to slavery in a government underfunded internship program which I have criticised previously.

Christmas Hopes

It is nearly Christmas, and we have just had the largest fall in our GDP since December 2008.  What budgetary measures can our Treasurer possibly come up with to stimulate our economy and its employment to save us from the official possibility of a recession?  The next quarter ends on the 31st of this month.   When 2.9903 million live below the poverty line, what real chances do people have to find a decent job with a decent wage, in the new year?

Filed Under: Employment

There’s been a Fall

December 13, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

Winter is coming!

Declining trends in GDP?
Declining trends in GDP?

This winter was cold apparently, and Australia slipped on the ice.  No limbs were broken in the fall, but the economic dilatometer for Australia’s GDP has demonstrated contraction. Not a surprise when you consider a full range of economic indicators for the Abbott/Turnbull Government.  The September quarter revealed a .5% shrinkage in our GDP, not seen since the Queensland flood affected the March 2011 quarter. The time before that was during the Global Financial Crisis.    It has not been an unexpected fall given the low growth figures each of the last year’s quarters.  In June 2015 quarter it was our accounting standards that defer payment recordings that recognised a 41.5% jump in government defence spending that secured a tiny growth rate.  There was no defence spending finalised to save us in September 2016.

Will the Wall hold?

The Coalition team were quick to allay fears of recession, as was the media.  The Treasurer blamed the deterioration on the lack of opportunity to provide tax cuts for corporations.  The same corporations that by in large provide little to no tax revenue to our bounty and often relocate locally generated profits overseas.  On the radio, Christopher Pyne blamed poor performance on the distraction of Australian and American elections but commented that now these were over, things would be better.  What?

Build your walls higher!

Prospects for the Construction Industry
Prospects for the Construction Industry

The largest contributor to the fall in GDP growth according to the Australian National Accounts was the reduced output of the construction industry. Construction work had continued to tumble for the 3rd consecutive quarter taking its biggest fall of 4.9% in September’s quarter.  Some are blaming poor weather (i.e. rainfall ) for a fall in building activity.   Aside from the fact that we are now in the wet monsoon season meaning things will get worse, is the industry suggesting “construction” doesn’t make allowances for rain?  To be fair, the Bureau of Meteorology had been reporting higher rainfalls than normal for July thru September, but it has also reported a long term decline in rainfall of around 11 per cent since the mid-1990s in April–October in the continental southeast and 19% in the southwest of Australia.  Forgive me the pun, but does rainfall as an excuse, hold water? Might there be other factors in the construction downfall?

Letting “investments” through the gates.

The rise of Foreign investment in Australia
The rise of Foreign investment in Australia

An August News article showed foreign investment approvals had shown a sharp increase in Chinese nationals particularly in the last few years.  Now the previous linked News article suggested the tightening of bank lending was unlikely to affect Chinese enthusiasm for Australian real estate adversely.  But is this true?  Concerns about Chinese investors laundering money in the Australian housing market was exposed by the Four Corners program “The Great Wall of Money” in late 2015.  Three significant events occurred in the period after this program went to air.

  1. Despite much procrastination because of the economic risks to the banking system, the prudential regulator of banks, APRA began to enforce some of their own rules on high-risk lending.
  2. Australian Banks uncovered evidence of numerous and sophisticated fraudulent income statements made by Chinese borrowers. To mitigate risks they have begun to restrict lending to offshore investors.
  3. The Chinese Government began cracking down on Money laundering corruption.

Three consequences have been reported in the media.

  1. Robert Gottliebsen reported in August that “The mass of Chinese property buyers who snapped up Australian apartments “off the plan” on the basis of a 10 per cent deposit have started to walk away from their agreements in Sydney”.  Melbourne has larger volumes of Chinese buyers.
  2. To secure sufficient financial collateral and because banks consider development projects high-risk ventures, developers depend on being able to provide evidence to banks of “off-the-plan” purchases of apartments.
  3. Risk avoidance by the banks is resulting in restricting or pulling finance on the Chinese markets. This risk means construction became nonviable and added to buyer pull out; it may likely be the greater cause of any given developer may ceasing or stalling development.
Chinese interest in Real Estate & Renewables
Chinese interest in Real Estate & Renewables

While not wanting to “rain” on anyone’s parade,  a more likely reason for a drop in construction might be the exit – of what was last year a massive influx of Chinese Buyers.  In fact, given the huge influx of Chinese buyers in the market in 2015, it could be hypothesised that Chinese consumers were keeping our economy afloat.

 

Closing the gates on the wall.

The strong and weak performers from last year
The strong and weak performers from last year

So what hope is there left in the final month of this quarter for us not to discover some time in February that we are in a recession?  Because two depressed GDP terms is an official recession and we have less than one month to go of the 2nd term.

  • Manufacturing? – Ford is gone, Holden
 fired-up the final V6 motor at its Port
Melbourne plant on the 29th of November and Toyota is in palliative care expecting to pass away next year.
  • Renewable energy market? – The government is slashing support for that industry
  • Mining? – Mining investment fell for the twelfth consecutive quarter & the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.8%
  • Exports? – Exports of goods fell 0.3% which is a bit surprising given how cheap our dollar is.
  • Retail? – This is the first decline in over three years as the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.8%, so perhaps that is just a glitch.
  • Real estate industry services? – which fell by 2.4% which is no surprise – given the continued unaffordability of the housing market.

Industries such as Education, health, power, hospitality, transport, professional & scientific services,  etc. contributed virtually nothing.  So where are our economic booms?

  • Information Media & Telecommunications? – rose 1.6% driven by rises in telecommunications and internet services, so be thankful for Youtube, iView, Netflix and Facebook but it’s a pity we don’t have an innovative & internationally competitive NBN.
  • Farming & fishing?  – driven by rises in grains, cotton and livestock production it had a 7.5% increase, so the social well-dressed participants at a BBQ with beef burgers may yet save the day.
  • Finance & Insurance services? – Up by .1%, so insurance salesmen are still the best sellers around and we are still buying their spiel.

It’s either Jon Snow to the rescue or …

Merry Christmas All!
Merry Christmas All!

Unless the government can quickly pay off a huge defence “lay-by” as they did last year, it’s in your hands people. Our consistently strong industries have been Retail and Services Industries driven by household expenditures which have been traditionally strong areas of our economy.  It’s Christmas, the retail and services industry awaits your patronage if you still have a job that pays a decent wage. You have one month left to buy us out of a recession. Buy up big for your kids, travel and stay in a nice motel. God help Australia, but is our last hope to avoid recession, “Santa Claus“?

Filed Under: Employment, Politicians

Trump – fascist or fascistic?

December 5, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

Philosophically changing landscape.

A disturbing consistency
A disturbing consistency

Just before the election, President elect Donald Trump, published his intentions for his first 100 days in office.  It is insular and sequestered towards his take on focused American interests.  From building walls to encouraging non-renewable pollution builders like shale, oil, natural gas and coal, which will result in undermining climate rectification.  Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a boon many would welcome, as alternative RCEP will be far more beneficial to the Australian economy.

Post-Truth world.

Tony Abbott the masterful beguiler of the Aussie Punter!
Tony Abbott the masterful beguiler of the Aussie Punter!

Whatever your values on these intentions, what is emerging, is that since the election, he’s made statements that are at variance with the dialogue from his rallies and his initial plans.  That “lies”, featured in Trump and Clinton’s campaign dialogue, has become par for the course for political bargaining with voters. This “post-truth” phenomena drew criticism that the Trump campaign countered with assertions that the media should not be ‘fact-checkers’.  Since the election, building walls, the death of Obamacare, the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, and the demise of the Iran peace treaty are all being quickly watered down in Washington.  At least Tony Abbott waited a few months before he instigated proposals to make cuts to education, cuts to health, change to pensions, increasing GST and cuts to the ABC and SBS.  While the Senate foiled many of the LNP’s valiant efforts to break their promises, much of the public showed their willingness to ignore Abbott’s apparent about-face. But lies are a negotiation the public has struck with politics for decades. Unless one engages in extensive fact-checking and pragmatic reasoning, such lies remain unchallenged; and many can’t be bothered to do so.

Observations of Fascism.

Some folk listened to their Grandfather's stories
Some folk listened to their Grandfather’s stories

Trump’s plans or renegotiations (or “lies”) are admittedly not standard Republican ideology.   His thinking is hard to pin down, echoing sentiments from across the political spectrum. Trump is something else altogether.  An interesting observation was made by an American teacher, which has landed her in hot water.   She was teaching students about the parallels between the rise of Trump and German dictator Adolf Hitler.  It’s an observation that has also been made by veteran Jewish Americans who fear the rise of a “new Hitler”.

Gianni Riotta in the Atlantic disagrees with the assertion Trump is a fascist. She talks about a “brand of fascism” defined by Mussolini’s original Partito Nazionale Fascista rule.  Being of Italian heritage, she is very wed to that being the only legitimate fascism.   For folk like Riotta, unless they are goose-stepping down Broadway, it isn’t fascism.   As though the final goal defines the process, but not, until you get there. Fascism deniers hold to the rather odd presumption that unless we have set up gulags in the manner that former Italian fascists did, then we are not there yet. Perhaps we should poll the unwilling residents of Guantanamo Bay, Manus and Nauru.
As Robert O. Paxton in his book “The Anatomy of Fascism” says, “Fascism does not rest explicitly upon an elaborated philosophical system, but rather upon popular feelings about master races, their unjust lot, and their rightful predominance over inferior peoples. […] In a way utterly unlike the classical “isms,” the rightness of fascism does not depend on the truth of any of the propositions advanced in its name.”  So Riotta attempt to define it as an elaborated philosophical system or fixed creed rather than a syndrome or a “beehive of contradictions“, lies on somewhat erroneous premises.  Or as Nicholas Clairmont (also from “The Atlantic”) explained, “But the debate over the definition of fascism is much richer than Riotta covered.“

Jobs and Growth.

 It is not an insignificant difference that America is a mature democracy, where Germany was not, at the time of Hitler’s rise.  Hitler was elected Chancellor in January 1933 in what was a relatively new democratic system established in 1919.  And in this latter American variation, there are both systematic differences and protections in place to stall degeneration into the Nazi’s historical outcomes.  Nevertheless, striking similarities remain. Like America, the German economy had hit rock-bottom and was at the time recovering.   Hitler also vowed to pull out of the Versailles treaty and repayments, much like Trump is pledging to renegotiate NAFTA and cancel the Pacific Trade Agreements.  Both were promising to protect internal jobs and build infrastructure.  In short, the familiar politico battle cry of “Jobs and Growth” was on both their agendas.
As Llewellyn Rockwell  writes, “He suspended the gold standard, embarked on huge public-works programs like autobahns, protected industry from foreign competition, expanded credit, instituted jobs programs, bullied the private sector on prices and production decisions, vastly expanded the military, enforced capital controls, instituted family planning, penalized smoking, brought about national healthcare and unemployment insurance, imposed education standards, and eventually ran huge deficits.“
Can Trump can be similarly successful?  Trump’s immediate promotion of jobs growth was very similar in manner to Malcolm Turnbull’s approach in providing jobs for unemployed friends. Trump has engaged the former mayor Rudy Giuliani (if you go to the link, note Rudy’s unusual nickname), former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, retired Gen. Michael Flynn, and former federal prosecutor Jeff Sessions.  Not unlike Malcolm Turnbull’s recycling of former MPs or George Brandis’s job stacking, Trump is “bringing jobs back” … to lobbyists and republican insiders.  One of his more controversial “jobs for the boys” decisions has been the selection of  Steve Bannon as Trump’s chief strategist. Bannon is the chairman of “Breitbart” the alt-right anti-semitic, anti-Muslim, misogynistic, racist, bigoted, conspiracy filled news site.  No doubt some readers will find that description a little harsh, and I’d have to concede that “news site” is probably inappropriate.  Trump’s choice of a strategist, is emboldening the rise of identity politics in America.  Reminiscent of a familiar Nazi German salutations, “Hail Trump” echoed from attendees at Richard Spencer’s recent annual conference of the National Policy Institute in Washington.

Historical similarities & differences.

Simple Comparisons
Simple Comparisons

Like Trump, Hitler was not the popular candidate.  Political machinations got Hitler into power, as he controlled the largest block of seats. For Trump, his path to power was winning the electoral college, not the popular vote. Both leaders lead a racist mass movement, along with being misogynistic and ultra-nationalistic, eliciting violent reactions from their attendees at national rallies.  The difference in Hitler’s case was protesters who tried to shout him down, were ejected by Hitler’s army friends armed with rubber truncheons.  Trump was not so organised, but his followers still ejected peaceful protesters, violently.  Trump displays contempt for liberal democratic norms and has identified a class of people he is quite happy to direct blame for America’s failings. Muslims replace Jews as the preferred targets despite the unconstitutional nature of his desires. Hitler, equally, had contempt for the Weimar Republic Constitution which changed Germany from a monarchy to a parliamentary democracy. The original Nazi party was filled with disenfranchised youth as a movement, whereas the Tea party Republican adherents found their primary support from older white men. Trump represents an avatar for their anger, marginalisation and resentment.  In both points of history, the people had lost faith in the ability of their government to look after them.  Coupled with a loss of confidence in the civil system, they sought a political option that came from outside the “system”.

Precluding Minorities.

Capitalistic support for Fascism
Capitalistic support for Fascism

Neither Hitler, not Trump spoke about exterminating the ethnic minority they were using as scapegoats, in their pre-election period.   Hitler only talked about expelling Jews and removing their civil rights.    Trump’s platform was to deport 2 million illegal immigrants, to eliminate birth right citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants and keeping Muslims out of America.  There are differences worth considering here too.  In the 1930’s data retention machines were primitive, but still, IBM rose to the challenge with a punch card sorting/cross indexing system to evaluate the census data to locate, identify and catalogue Jews. Without IBM’s help, the mass extermination of the Jews would have been logistically impossible.  Today’s technology is streets ahead of anything IBM had then.   IBM’s census collecting apparatus is so more sophisticated and accurate now, despite the issues Australia suffered via IBM on their last census.  The American government with access to the NSA’s extensive data records on Americans – as Edward Snowden has revealed – can so quickly identify ethnic minorities.

 

The Post-truth results on Trump.
The Post-truth results on Trump.

Hitler promised to make Germany great and restore national pride.   In echoes of Charles Lindbergh‘s “America First” isolationists rhetoric, Trump claimed, “I promise to make America great” and then spoke of isolating America. Hitler threatened and did persecute his political opponents, and Trump threatened to jail Hillary Clinton during public debates.  He has since reneged on that, but his earlier rhetoric was worrying.  Honesty among politicians in a “post-truth” era is unexpected, but even in Hitler’s time, a former finance minister described Hitler as thoroughly untruthful. Washington Post gave Trump 3.4 “Pinocchios” (as compared to Hillary Clinton getting 2.2), and noted of the 92 Trump statements that were fact checked, only 11 were found to fall into the category of mostly true or neutral. Attitudes towards women by both Hitler and Trump were quite simply appalling and deeply misogynistic.  Hitler and Mussolini declared themselves as opposed to feminism, while Hitler’s predominant offence was in objectifying women for reproductive purposes.  As for Trump’s Billy Bush conversation, I am opposed to giving that any more oxygen than it already, by linking to it here.  If perchance you don’t know to what I refer, then all I can say is, “Welcome back, I trust that your absence from civilisation over the last few months has not been unduly traumatic”.

The results of Fascism take time.

Some are old enough to remember
Some are old enough to remember

Under Hitler, unemployment figures began to drop. Public work schemes were introduced, and the German Labour Front was set up to “protect” workers. Measures to ensure the leisure time of the work force was entrenched. It was a good month after he was “elected” in 1933 before Hitler began suspending several constitutional protections on civil rights.  Jews didn’t lose their citizenship until 1935; about the same time conscription was brought in. Government income increased to ℛℳ15 billion Reichsmarks by 1939 (from ℛℳ10B in 1928) but then spending increased too. The invasion of Poland didn’t occur till 1939. Hitler had been in “legitimate” power for seven years by then.  If Trump stays in power for two terms, he will have eight years to bring to fruition what he desires and the fact that four of the last five presidents served a full eight years is not encouraging.  If you hold to the belief that Trump isn’t intimately aware of Hitler’s strategies, then you don’t want to read this.

What have you done?

Of course there are subtle differences. It is 80 years later, after all. But in essence, how is any of this not similar in spirit (if not exact fact) to the rise of Hitler’s Fascist German Nazi Party?  And on that point, I should acknowledge the impeccable research work of my wife,  who provided me with far more comparative information than I could fit into this one article.  Perhaps as Jeet Heer says, ”even if Trump is only fascistic rather than a fascist, that’s more than scary enough“. However you phrase it to make yourself feel more comfortable and sleep well at night, in the end the question remains, where will the rise of Trumpism take America and the rest of the world?  Good luck America!

Filed Under: Foreign, Politicians, Race, Women

WTF Trump!?

November 10, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

The morning after that night!
The morning after that night!

When even Murdock’s “Daily Telegraph” leads off the day after the American election, with the letters “W.T.F” in 72mm high characters in reaction to  “a political triumph that seemed impossible 24 hours ago“, you know something major has happened.  Mind you, given how supportive Murdoch’s media influencers in Fox News was initially for Donald Trump, it is disingenuous for the Telegraph to be milking the global shock reaction.  But of course, the Telegraph knows such a response will sell papers, and as usual the profit motive “trumps” ideological approval of the result.  Turnbull very quickly – as he does so often – capitulated to the ultra-right and affirmed his alignment with the new administration.

Two rather interesting and telling reactions to the growing realisation that Trump would win were the markets plummeting and the Canadian immigration website collapsing. While the markets have made something of a recovery there is an element of nervousness in the future because of his unpredictability. In regards Canadian immigration website, one can only infer Americans began immediately exploring their options at leaving America.  Like our Australian Census website, the canadian site was not built to withstand so much “natural” traffic and failed.

When my Father was alive, he made a number of efforts to have myself and my family relocate back across the border from NSW to Queensland.  As he pointed out on one occasion that over a thousand people a week were moving up to Queensland from New South Wales. Like the appeal now to moving to Canada, my Father promoted it as the choice sane, rational and smart people were making.  I agreed with him, at which point he joyously reveled in his apparent “win”.  It was at that point I raised the point that my wife as a psychologist, made a living out of treating dysfunctionality.  I countered that, the migration of smart and sane people to Queensland meant greater opportunities for my wife to ply her trade here and less in Queensland. He replied with “Touché!“.  And so we stayed put.  Perhaps now we should hurry to America. I suspect now the Canadian immigration will be inundated with people contacting them once they restore their website.  Certainly, the Chaser, is satirically suggesting that to the south, the Mexican border may now be swamped with fleeing Americans.

The electoral choice of the people
The electoral choice of the people

Trump as the 45th President embraced so wholeheartedly by middle America is fueling anger amongst democrats and socialists in America.  But it is not leveled so much at Trump – although some has, as riots have shown – but at an introspection at the failures of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Many articles reflected that the choice of Hillary Clinton was a choice of the lessor of two evils. Certainly Dr Lissa Johnson’s pre-election analysis did this. In terms of the lesser of two evils, Clinton was not the popular choice, although she was the corporate choice, as evidenced by her significant corporate donors list. It is becoming apparent that many Bernie supporters simply abstained from voting or voted for minority candidates or even switched to vote for Trump. This although was offset by another rather ironic development.   Many Trump voters couldn’t vote – as evidenced by the many complaints on the right-wing “4chan” online hangout – because they didn’t register to vote.  The sheer irony of the alt-right trolls complaints on the day of voting, that many forgot to register (or didn’t realise they had to) was amusing to some.  Clinton – on the other hand – had made ensuring supporters registered was a major part of her strategy, which Trump had largely neglected.

Thank the DNC for Trump!
Thank the DNC for Trump!

The question remains as to what was the offset difference between Bernie voters abstaining or voting for Trump verses non-registered Trump supporters. Certainly the overall effect – whatever it may have been –  did not hamper Trump’s success. The Democrats although, created a rod for their own back. The DNC corruptly undermined Bernie Sanders  when he clearly had the more popular following but failed to take corporate money and therefore be beholden to them.  Hillary gladly accepted her donors and the faustian bargain was completed. She got the nomination. The DNC have only their own corrupt internal arrogance to blame for this failure to beat Trump. Sanders was never behind Trump in the polls, although to be honest the polls did not predict a Trump win.  So polling should be approached with large pillars of salt. If the final choice weren’t so disastrous, I would say it served the DNC right. Their arrogant complacency and willingness to bend over to bow to the will of their corporate donors has handed America over to a racist, misogynist, incompetent, liar and failed business man who has run a trail of corporate wreckage behind him. Political party’s need to wake up and start listening to their supporters, not their donors and internal lobbyists and factional politics. It’s the same in Australia.  Political donations by corporates are well overdue for review.

The media was also complicit in handing America to Trump.  I would just like to quote former Democrat Senator and now Greens member, Arthur Chesterfield-Evans’s reflections on the media.  “But if the level of disgust in the process of government is enough to turn a US Presidential election, one must also wonder about the effect of the media. For years, news has been replaced by infotainment.  What is important is replaced by what is titillating or exciting. News is trivial, what is important is often not covered, particularly things like falling middle class jobs and stagnating wages. […] So the non-expert, pontificating and criticising overcomes the expert discussing sensibly- how many of those are on TV? The shock jock has become more important than the politician. So why are we surprised when it now happens in real life? The shock jock beat the politician. And the pollsters got it wrong again- just like in Brexit.”

The American political élite were not inclusive of what they regarded as the Hoi polloi of the population. The people who once engaged with Obama have turned on the Democrats as they have continued to cater to corporate interests.  The grass roots support for Bernie Sanders demonstrated this.  But DNC undermined Bernie Sanders when he was clearly more popular and with far less baggage. Given the turnaround in voting patterns there had to be many former democrats who changed their allegiances and not merely because of a racist or misogynist agenda – even if Trump represented that.  There were other influences that guided Americans.  The Hoi Polloi saw an establishment that bailed out banks rather than implement banking regulation on Wall Street. The brutal destruction of the Occupy Movement by a coordinated national effort led by the FBI won no favourable impressions. Despite long-term unemployed Americans having dropped by 614,000, it was still 761,000 higher than at the start of the Great Recession at the beginning of 2016. Home ownership dropped and while worthy projects such as the Heidelberg Project converted abandoned houses into Art works in Detroit, that such a project even exists, is telling of the America’s economy. The myth of the “great American dream” for opportunities for success have been dashed as the administration has failed to provide genuine opportunity for social mobility amongst Americans.  This administration continued to fail to facilitate a lack of educational opportunities for the masses.  Interestingly, the largest significant characteristics of Trump voter demographics was an apparent absence of a college degree.  And of course their foreign policy which resulted in America bombing seven countries during the last administration and adding to the huge worldwide mass of refugees on the move through out the world, is winning few friends.   (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, Libya and Syria, in case you weren’t keeping track.)

Exit polls have shown that Trump maintained a strong lead amongst white Anglo Saxon men supported by the conservative religious right.   Which leads us into examining the category of folks who had other reasons other than simply rationalising their disillusioned with the performance of the current administration.  There is that group of white Anglo Saxon men and women who aligned with Trump’s core values.  They who sought to assert their claim to racial dominance and hierarchical social control. As with Australia, many Americans rejected egalitarian pluralism for bigotry, misogyny and racism.

White male protests
White male protests

The “right to be Bigots” (as Brandis lobbied for) has been implanted in the moral ethos of three major western democracies. Brexit for Britian, Trump for America and Turnbull’s capitulation to the neo-conservatives of his party for Australia. All the progress in values, morality, fairness and equality which so many folks at the grass roots in this generation witnessed slowly emerging, have been dashed on the shores of hatred, pettiness and division. The blow to egalitarianism that Trump represents has been a crushing blow many are still reeling from. But having been hit so hard we can not stay down. We can not surrender to the hatred. Like the followers of Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Desmond Tutu or Martin Luthor and the like, we have to pick ourselves back up off the ground. We have to face they that defile our hopes and stand for true freedom from oppression, racism, bigotry and misogyny. The battle for a more progressive, egalitarian and inclusive society continues and we cannot let these defeats define us.

Filed Under: Politicians, Race

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