Archives for December 2016

Cuba – farewell to Fidel

December 27, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

The passing of Fidel Castro marks a change that a generation the grew up with the drama of the missile crisis through to the first visit by an American President to Cuba. A period of history of high drama and political upheaval, he will be remembered by a diverse range of opinions. This is just mine.

Dictator

Issues such as Fidel Castro are never black and white. Yes, he was a “dictator” in so far as he led his country for 47 years after overthrowing American backed Batista. Yes, people died, were shot or imprisoned during and after the rebellion, but no man is entirely one thing or another. His story need a few shades of grey. A grey not conceded when Mike Pence described him as a tyrant and suggested the Cuban people were oppressed and in need of freedom and democracy. An interesting take from his “democracy”.

Who bombed what?

I note that America has bombed 7 countries during the last president’s term of office which was a fraction of Castro’s presidency. Castro dropped doctors in third world countries while America dropped bombs. Mike Pence was very critical of Fidel on his death suggesting too that having been “starved of Democracy” that they might welcome it now. But America castigating Fidel is like the pot calling the kettle black. How many countries did Cuba bomb and what contribution to the worldwide mass movement of refugees displaced from their homes is Cuba responsible for? Did he jail and torture people to the extent America has? Guantanamo is run by which country? Which country has the highest incarceration rate in prisons on earth (including China) and despite falling crime rates? [I’ll give you a clue, it was imprisoning 2.2M in 2013] Which country created, funded and armed Isis? Which country has consistently undermined the Middle East?

Celebrations or mourning?

Thousands of people gather at Revolution Square Antonio Maceo during a public tribute to late Cuban leader Fidel Castro in, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, 03 December 2016.

Why are Fidel’s own people people not celebrating his departure if he was so evil? Why are they mourning him in the thousands in streets where herds of people are so thick and miles in length for his funeral? Have a googled look at the crowds recorded in “Plaza de la Revolución Antonio Maceo en Santiago de Cuba” for his memorial service. That’s not what you’d think “oppressed” folk might do. When Thatcher died the country was positively jubilant. The upper class were outraged at how happy folks were singing “The witch is dead!“.

Children & Justice

Which is the only country in the Americas that is not only without child malnourishment but was described by the UNICEF as “the best example of protection of children” (by Juan José Ortiz) especially as it had the lowest child death rate and negligible homeless street children? Not so many homeless adults for that matter. People are accommodated because housing is kept cheap. Yet in America the number of foreclosed houses outnumber the homeless. Yes, I know some of Cuba’s accommodation has been in Jails for some. Arbitrary detentions and short-term imprisonments are far more prevalent in America. The citizens of Cuba walk the streets and have homes to go to. Incarceration even on a per capita basis compared to America (510 per 100K in Cuba verses 693 in America – and that does not include juveniles, inmates in US territories or American military facilities – have I mentioned Guantanamo? — Oh yes I have.). Political prisoners, restrictions on freedom of expression (i.e. Snowden) travel restrictions and prisoner conditions are criticisms that can be leveled at both Cuba and America. Who do you think is better or worse?

Health Care

Which country has had produced over 124,000 health professionals who have worked in over 154 countries since 1961, hosts 3432 medical students from 23 nations studying medicine and exports hundreds of them to fight diseases in foreign third world countries ? The US secretary of state, John Kerry, was praising which country for sending “165 health professionals and it plans to send nearly 300 more” in 2014 to fight Ebola in Liberia, Sierra Leone & Guinea? Just what did America send? Instead of Doctors, they sent troops. I get why civil control is important in an outbreak but what does it tell you about the differences in the countries when one sends doctors and the other troops? Which country developed 4 vaccines against cancers including lung cancer (but has all their pharmaceuticals blocked by the USA) and was the first country to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV as validated by WHO? Which country suffers from greater rates of obesity and diabetes? Which has the higher rates on drug and alcohol abuse? Which has the higher rates on School gun violence, rape on campuses, pollution, suicides, spousal abuse, etc … need I go on?

Education

With that health record, an education record that creates a Student:Teacher ratio of 12:1, and a youth illiteracy rate in Cuba is close to zero and is the best education system in Latin America, I have to ask, what does America offer in terms of Health and Education? Certainly not an education system that is 100% subsidised by the government. And Obamacare? Please don’t make me laugh. In Australia we have Medicare and it pi**e* all over Obamacare, even if our current neo-conservative government is trying desperately to dismantle it. Actually there are a lot of countries who’s health care systems could do that!

Democracy?

Instead the MSM’s coverage is insular & compliant with the “official narrative” story without a perspective on how the third world looked at Cuba. It’s a very first world capitalist perspective. Cuba has flourished in it’s own manner and even survived while under an embargo by the most powerful country in the world. As for Mike Pence hoping that Cuba would welcome “democracy” now, if he really thinks any country in the world wants your “democracy”, if the result is “Trump”, then he is delusional. Dude, you have no hope of installing “democracy” there, if America is the example!

The myth of Jobs Growth

December 22, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree 1 Comment

Turnbull’s “Jobs and Growth” campaign inspired many in Australia to vote for whom they believed were the better economic managers of our economy. In the first quarter of their second term in office, Australia is showing declining growth in the economy and a similar decline in full-time jobs.

The Slave Trade

The Hebrews and Greeks regarded work as a curse because “work” was performed by slaves and the underclass. Placing a positive moral value on “work” is a relatively recent invention emerging out of the Protestant Reformation. Max Weber, a German economic sociologist, wrote the book, “The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism“ coining the term the “Protestant work ethic“. The concept of the religious work ethic became secularised to support the mounting new industrial system which required workers who would accept long hours and poor working conditions.

The unionism of the 19th century reshaped much of the makeup of “work” as we know it today. Consider ‘fair and reasonable’ wages (the 1907 Harvester Decision), better wages for women (as high as 54% of male wages by 1930), weekend penalty rates (from 1947), shorter working hours (down to 40 hrs in 1948) and four week holidays (from 1973). Work health and safety reforms (commencing in 1984) and more consultative supervisory styles & policies (Industrial Relations Reform Act 1993) continued to transform working relationships.

In 1996 Howard introduced the Workplace Relations Act which was later amended in 2005 (known as Work Choices). Workplace industrial relations began to change, but not necessarily for the better. Anti-union rhetoric accelerated despite as Greg Jericho noted the lack of “strong evidence that changes to the IR system will actually improve economic growth or productivity“.

Diminishing working day

The problem for many Australians is having access to paid work in the first place. A full day’s work (38 hr/weeks established in 1981) for a full day’s pay is a diminishing luxury in Australia. Full-time worker numbers are diminishing are diminishing in preference for part-time work. The “fair day’s pay” principle suffers as wages are increasingly stagnating.

Australian economy unexpectedly contracted 0.5 percent

The economy’s poor performance has been reflected in the September Quarter GDP’s figures, contracting by .5%. Australia has not experienced a contraction in GDP that severe since the GFC of 2008. This result was predictable, despite the Treasurer’s rhetoric talking up the economy. While some factors affect failing economies, our poor employment record is one, as Victoria University Senior Research Fellow Janine Dixon said, “Fixing unemployment would boost production, incomes and living standards.” Into this environment came the Coalition mantra proclaiming they were the party of “Jobs and Growth” that we voted for at the beginning of this contracted quarter.

The Measures of Unemployment.

So, are we putting our growing army of eager workers, to good use to recharge our vitiated economy? The International Business Times claimed misleadingly, “From 5.7 percent in July, Australia’s unemployment rate further went down to 5.6 percent in August. It is the lowest joblessness rate since the Coalition government came to power in September 2013.” While some conservatives may claim we were back on track, it does not stand up to scrutiny. The workforce size when the LNP took power was smaller, and of course, percentages are relative to that magnitude. Using percentages hides real numbers. These are:

ABS’s 5.6% = 697,100 people unemployed in Sept 2013 with workforce of 12,343,000
ABS’s 5.6% = 705,100 people unemployed in Sept 2016 with workforce of 12,652,000

In term of actual numbers unemployed 5.6% in 2013, is 8000 less than 5.6% in 2016.

Bloomberg's observations — Bloomberg’s observations

For the Australians that can acquire jobs, the makeup of that employment has changed. In September of 2013 full-time employment was increasing at a greater rate than part-time work but this has incurred a reversal. A trend which has not escaped international attention. As Alan Austin has pointed out in November 2016, “Over the last three years, there has been a significant shift from full-time to part-time jobs“.

To keep this critique relevant to the GDP downturn the statistics herein are pertinent to the September quarter unless otherwise stated. (October’s ABS stats for unemployment were the same and November’s worse.)

September end of quarter stats

The Australia wide Dept of Employment IVI index for job vacancies for September was 161.5K. Vacancies were down from 163.5K in August. The ratio of vacancies to unemployed was 1:4.4. However, ABS’s standard for measuring unemployment hides thousands of unemployed people as I’ve explained in a previous article. The more accurate Roy Morgan’s unemployed statistic is 1.101 million or 8.5%. The ratio is then 1:6.8! If you add their underemployment numbers, you reach 2.103 million or 16.2%, and the ratio becomes 1:13.

Quarterly variation between ABS & Roy Morgan

How then do we consider the Australia residents, who are not significantly measured by ABS as part of our workforce because of the 12/16 month rule? For example, foreign citizens with reciprocal work rights (i.e. Canadian, British, New Zealanders, etc). On October 31, 2016, there were 1,472,640 potential temporary foreign workers in Australia, 660,000 of which New Zealanders, 486,700 of which were students. Then there are the much maligned 457 visas holders in Australia, which the Dept of Immigration September Statistics number at 172,178. (Primary & secondary applicants)

What else should be accounted for here? Available vacancies examined in a report by Anglicare’s Jobs Availability Snapshot. Leon Moulden said on the nature of job vacancies showing that only 13.1% were for low skilled jobs. Applying the same maths Leon did to the vacancies available; this would represent only 21,000 vacancies Australia-wide apply to people without significant skill levels and education. The ACSF from the Board of Studies in NSW scores literacy and numeracy into five levels. The program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies shows that 60% of people not in the labour force have competencies of less than Level 3. While people “not in the labour force” is a wider net than the unemployed, 60% of Roy Morgan’s evaluation of 1.101 million unemployed people is 660,000. While this is only a rough estimate with a significant error variant, 660K people competing for only 21K vacancies with little skill entry is a major obstacle to entry. Now to absorb any possible margin of error, I have not factored in under-employed and foreign workers.

Enough with the numbers!

Let’s now depart from the maths and discuss the sociological issues that prevent people from finding work. Some media love to amplify the perception that everyone who is unemployed, is a dole bludger, or the latest put down acronym, NEETS. It’s their dominant strategy to divide welfare from the working class without a single consideration of any other mitigating factors, such as:

location suitability (interstate travel, home locality, & costs/inconvenience of changing residence),
employer discrimination, (bigotry, racism & misogyny),
accessibility limitations, (limits of public transport, car, bus, train, disability ramps, etc.),
boundaries of literacy, skill, experience, qualifications & education levels,
competition for jobs, (705K [smaller ABS nos. only] people writing 20 letters a month for 161.5K jobs = an average 87 applications a month per vacancy),
financial limitations (For many surviving off the dole puts you below the poverty line),
financial burdens (family, mortgage versus inadequate wage levels),
injury, health & pre-existing illness or disability issues,
occupational risks inherent in the job, (i.e. firemen, riggers)
your status as the principal carer of a child, (i.e. single parents or guardians)
security clearance issues (i.e. Defence Force, ASIO, child safety, commercial sensitivities),
illegal under award payment, shockingly poor wages or condition by employers.

In summary, there are not enough jobs and the majority of available jobs are only accessible to highly skilled, mobile, and versatile workers.

Back to first principles – slavery?

This picture isn’t yet complete. The Australian workplace for low skilled work is notorious for underpayment of wages (see 7-Eleven convenience stores, food distributors, restaurants and cafes). These are just the ones we hear about when addressed in court. Consider also those where actions are not taken, such as the Wollongong student’s vent on social media about employers paying far below award wages. But the apologists might cry, at least they are receiving some money! If you’re still of that view, then you didn’t read the last link to the concluding line which said, “Not only are employers looking for free labour, young people are putting themselves forward for unpaid work trials in the desperate hope they lead to a job“. So what has been our government’s response? An institutionalisation of the PaTH to slavery in a government underfunded internship program which I have criticised previously.

Christmas Hopes

It is nearly Christmas, and we have just had the largest fall in our GDP since December 2008. What budgetary measures can our Treasurer possibly come up with to stimulate our economy and its employment to save us from the official possibility of a recession? The next quarter ends on the 31st of this month. When 2.9903 million live below the poverty line, what real chances do people have to find a decent job with a decent wage, in the new year?

There’s been a Fall

December 13, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

Winter is coming!

This winter was cold apparently, and Australia slipped on the ice. No limbs were broken in the fall, but the economic dilatometer for Australia’s GDP has demonstrated contraction. Not a surprise when you consider a full range of economic indicators for the Abbott/Turnbull Government. The September quarter revealed a .5% shrinkage in our GDP, not seen since the Queensland flood affected the March 2011 quarter. The time before that was during the Global Financial Crisis. It has not been an unexpected fall given the low growth figures each of the last year’s quarters. In June 2015 quarter it was our accounting standards that defer payment recordings that recognised a 41.5% jump in government defence spending that secured a tiny growth rate. There was no defence spending finalised to save us in September 2016.

Will the Wall hold?

The Coalition team were quick to allay fears of recession, as was the media. The Treasurer blamed the deterioration on the lack of opportunity to provide tax cuts for corporations. The same corporations that by in large provide little to no tax revenue to our bounty and often relocate locally generated profits overseas. On the radio, Christopher Pyne blamed poor performance on the distraction of Australian and American elections but commented that now these were over, things would be better. What?

Build your walls higher!

The largest contributor to the fall in GDP growth according to the Australian National Accounts was the reduced output of the construction industry. Construction work had continued to tumble for the 3rd consecutive quarter taking its biggest fall of 4.9% in September’s quarter. Some are blaming poor weather (i.e. rainfall ) for a fall in building activity. Aside from the fact that we are now in the wet monsoon season meaning things will get worse, is the industry suggesting “construction” doesn’t make allowances for rain? To be fair, the Bureau of Meteorology had been reporting higher rainfalls than normal for July thru September, but it has also reported a long term decline in rainfall of around 11 per cent since the mid-1990s in April–October in the continental southeast and 19% in the southwest of Australia. Forgive me the pun, but does rainfall as an excuse, hold water? Might there be other factors in the construction downfall?

Letting “investments” through the gates.

The rise of Foreign investment in Australia

An August News article showed foreign investment approvals had shown a sharp increase in Chinese natio nals particularly in the last few years. Now the previous linked News article suggested the tightening of bank lending was unlikely to affect Chinese enthusiasm for Australian real estate adversely. But is this true? Concerns about Chinese investors laundering money in the Australian housing market was exposed by the Four Corners program “The Great Wall of Money” in late 2015. Three significant events occurred in the period after this program went to air.

Despite much procrastination because of the economic risks to the banking system, the prudential regulator of banks, APRA began to enforce some of their own rules on high-risk lending.
Australian Banks uncovered evidence of numerous and sophisticated fraudulent income statements made by Chinese borrowers. To mitigate risks they have begun to restrict lending to offshore investors.
The Chinese Government began cracking down on Money laundering corruption.

Three consequences have been reported in the media.

Robert Gottliebsen reported in August that “The mass of Chinese property buyers who snapped up Australian apartments “off the plan” on the basis of a 10 per cent deposit have started to walk away from their agreements in Sydney”. Melbourne has larger volumes of Chinese buyers.
To secure sufficient financial collateral and because banks consider development projects high-risk ventures, developers depend on being able to provide evidence to banks of “off-the-plan” purchases of apartments.
Risk avoidance by the banks is resulting in restricting or pulling finance on the Chinese markets. This risk means construction became nonviable and added to buyer pull out; it may likely be the greater cause of any given developer may ceasing or stalling development.

Chinese interest in Real Estate & Renewables

While not wanting to “rain” on anyone’s parade, a more likely reason for a drop in construction might be the exit – of what was last year a massive influx of Chinese Buyers. In fact, given the huge influx of Chinese buyers in the market in 2015, it could be hypothesised that Chinese consumers were keeping our economy afloat.

Closing the gates on the wall.

The strong and weak performers from last year

So what hope is there left in the final month of this quarter for us not to discover some time in February that we are in a recession? Because two depressed GDP terms is an official recession and we have less than one month to go of the 2nd term.

Manufacturing? – Ford is gone, Holden  fired-up the final V6 motor at its Port Melbourne plant on the 29th of November and Toyota is in palliative care expecting to pass away next year.
Renewable energy market? – The government is slashing support for that industry
Mining? – Mining investment fell for the twelfth consecutive quarter & the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.8%
Exports? – Exports of goods fell 0.3% which is a bit surprising given how cheap our dollar is.
Retail? – This is the first decline in over three years as the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.8%, so perhaps that is just a glitch.
Real estate industry services? – which fell by 2.4% which is no surprise – given the continued unaffordability of the housing market.

Industries such as Education, health, power, hospitality, transport, professional & scientific services, etc. contributed virtually nothing. So where are our economic booms?

Information Media & Telecommunications? – rose 1.6% driven by rises in telecommunications and internet services, so be thankful for Youtube, iView, Netflix and Facebook but it’s a pity we don’t have an innovative & internationally competitive NBN.
Farming & fishing? – driven by rises in grains, cotton and livestock production it had a 7.5% increase, so the social well-dressed participants at a BBQ with beef burgers may yet save the day.
Finance & Insurance services? – Up by .1%, so insurance salesmen are still the best sellers around and we are still buying their spiel.

It’s either Jon Snow to the rescue or …

Unless the government can quickly pay off a huge defence “lay-by” as they did last year, it’s in your hands people. Our consistently strong industries have been Retail and Services Industries driven by household expenditures which have been traditionally strong areas of our economy. It’s Christmas, the retail and services industry awaits your patronage if you still have a job that pays a decent wage. You have one month left to buy us out of a recession. Buy up big for your kids, travel and stay in a nice motel. God help Australia, but is our last hope to avoid recession, “Santa Claus“?

Trump – fascist or fascistic?

December 5, 2016 by James J. Morrison W.G. Dupree Leave a Comment

Philosophically changing landscape.

Just before the election, President elect Donald Trump, published his intentions for his first 100 days in office. It is insular and sequestered towards his take on focused American interests. From building walls to encouraging non-renewable pollution builders like shale, oil, natural gas and coal, which will result in undermining climate rectification. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a boon many would welcome, as alternative RCEP will be far more beneficial to the Australian economy.

Post-Truth world.

Tony Abbott the masterful beguiler of the Aussie Punter!

Whatever your values on these intentions, what is emerging, is that since the election, he’s made statements that are at variance with the dialogue from his rallies and his initial plans. That “lies”, featured in Trump and Clinton’s campaign dialogue, has become par for the course for political bargaining with voters. This “post-truth” phenomena drew criticism that the Trump campaign countered with assertions that the media should not be ‘fact-checkers’. Since the election, building walls, the death of Obamacare, the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, and the demise of the Iran peace treaty are all being quickly watered down in Washington. At least Tony Abbott waited a few months before he instigated proposals to make cuts to education, cuts to health, change to pensions, increasing GST and cuts to the ABC and SBS. While the Senate foiled many of the LNP’s valiant efforts to break their promises, much of the public showed their willingness to ignore Abbott’s apparent about-face. But lies are a negotiation the public has struck with politics for decades. Unless one engages in extensive fact-checking and pragmatic reasoning, such lies remain unchallenged; and many can’t be bothered to do so.

Observations of Fascism.

Some folk listened to their Grandfather's stories — Some folk listened to their Grandfather’s stories

Trump’s plans or renegotiations (or “lies”) are admittedly not standard Republican ideology. His thinking is hard to pin down, echoing sentiments from across the political spectrum. Trump is something else altogether. An interesting observation was made by an American teacher, which has landed her in hot water. She was teaching students about the parallels between the rise of Trump and German dictator Adolf Hitler. It’s an observation that has also been made by veteran Jewish Americans who fear the rise of a “new Hitler”.

Gianni Riotta in the Atlantic disagrees with the assertion Trump is a fascist. She talks about a “brand of fascism” defined by Mussolini’s original Partito Nazionale Fascista rule. Being of Italian heritage, she is very wed to that being the only legitimate fascism. For folk like Riotta, unless they are goose-stepping down Broadway, it isn’t fascism. As though the final goal defines the process, but not, until you get there. Fascism deniers hold to the rather odd presumption that unless we have set up gulags in the manner that former Italian fascists did, then we are not there yet. Perhaps we should poll the unwilling residents of Guantanamo Bay, Manus and Nauru.

As Robert O. Paxton in his book “The Anatomy of Fascism” says, “Fascism does not rest explicitly upon an elaborated philosophical system, but rather upon popular feelings about master races, their unjust lot, and their rightful predominance over inferior peoples. […] In a way utterly unlike the classical “isms,” the rightness of fascism does not depend on the truth of any of the propositions advanced in its name.” So Riotta attempt to define it as an elaborated philosophical system or fixed creed rather than a syndrome or a “beehive of contradictions“, lies on somewhat erroneous premises. Or as Nicholas Clairmont (also from “The Atlantic”) explained, “But the debate over the definition of fascism is much richer than Riotta covered.“

Jobs and Growth.

It is not an insignificant difference that America is a mature democracy, where Germany was not, at the time of Hitler’s rise. Hitler was elected Chancellor in January 1933 in what was a relatively new democratic system established in 1919. And in this latter American variation, there are both systematic differences and protections in place to stall degeneration into the Nazi’s historical outcomes. Nevertheless, striking similarities remain. Like America, the German economy had hit rock-bottom and was at the time recovering. Hitler also vowed to pull out of the Versailles treaty and repayments, much like Trump is pledging to renegotiate NAFTA and cancel the Pacific Trade Agreements. Both were promising to protect internal jobs and build infrastructure. In short, the familiar politico battle cry of “Jobs and Growth” was on both their agendas.

As Llewellyn Rockwell writes, “He suspended the gold standard, embarked on huge public-works programs like autobahns, protected industry from foreign competition, expanded credit, instituted jobs programs, bullied the private sector on prices and production decisions, vastly expanded the military, enforced capital controls, instituted family planning, penalized smoking, brought about national healthcare and unemployment insurance, imposed education standards, and eventually ran huge deficits.“

Can Trump can be similarly successful? Trump’s immediate promotion of jobs growth was very similar in manner to Malcolm Turnbull’s approach in providing jobs for unemployed friends. Trump has engaged the former mayor Rudy Giuliani (if you go to the link, note Rudy’s unusual nickname), former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, retired Gen. Michael Flynn, and former federal prosecutor Jeff Sessions. Not unlike Malcolm Turnbull’s recycling of former MPs or George Brandis’s job stacking, Trump is “bringing jobs back” … to lobbyists and republican insiders. One of his more controversial “jobs for the boys” decisions has been the selection of Steve Bannon as Trump’s chief strategist. Bannon is the chairman of “Breitbart” the alt-right anti-semitic, anti-Muslim, misogynistic, racist, bigoted, conspiracy filled news site. No doubt some readers will find that description a little harsh, and I’d have to concede that “news site” is probably inappropriate. Trump’s choice of a strategist, is emboldening the rise of identity politics in America. Reminiscent of a familiar Nazi German salutations, “Hail Trump” echoed from attendees at Richard Spencer’s recent annual conference of the National Policy Institute in Washington.

Historical similarities & differences.

Like Trump, Hitler was not the popular candidate. Political machinations got Hitler into power, as he controlled the largest block of seats. For Trump, his path to power was winning the electoral college, not the popular vote. Both leaders lead a racist mass movement, along with being misogynistic and ultra-nationalistic, eliciting violent reactions from their attendees at national rallies. The difference in Hitler’s case was protesters who tried to shout him down, were ejected by Hitler’s army friends armed with rubber truncheons. Trump was not so organised, but his followers still ejected peaceful protesters, violently. Trump displays contempt for liberal democratic norms and has identified a class of people he is quite happy to direct blame for America’s failings. Muslims replace Jews as the preferred targets despite the unconstitutional nature of his desires. Hitler, equally, had contempt for the Weimar Republic Constitution which changed Germany from a monarchy to a parliamentary democracy. The original Nazi party was filled with disenfranchised youth as a movement, whereas the Tea party Republican adherents found their primary support from older white men. Trump represents an avatar for their anger, marginalisation and resentment. In both points of history, the people had lost faith in the ability of their government to look after them. Coupled with a loss of confidence in the civil system, they sought a political option that came from outside the “system”.

Precluding Minorities.

Neither Hitler, not Trump spoke about exterminating the ethnic minority they were using as scapegoats, in their pre-election period. Hitler only talked about expelling Jews and removing their civil rights. Trump’s platform was to deport 2 million illegal immigrants, to eliminate birth right citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants and keeping Muslims out of America. There are differences worth considering here too. In the 1930’s data retention machines were primitive, but still, IBM rose to the challenge with a punch card sorting/cross indexing system to evaluate the census data to locate, identify and catalogue Jews. Without IBM’s help, the mass extermination of the Jews would have been logistically impossible. Today’s technology is streets ahead of anything IBM had then. IBM’s census collecting apparatus is so more sophisticated and accurate now, despite the issues Australia suffered via IBM on their last census. The American government with access to the NSA’s extensive data records on Americans – as Edward Snowden has revealed – can so quickly identify ethnic minorities.

Hitler promised to make Germany great and restore national pride. In echoes of Charles Lindbergh‘s “America First” isolationists rhetoric, Trump claimed, “I promise to make America great” and then spoke of isolating America. Hitler threatened and did persecute his political opponents, and Trump threatened to jail Hillary Clinton during public debates. He has since reneged on that, but his earlier rhetoric was worrying. Honesty among politicians in a “post-truth” era is unexpected, but even in Hitler’s time, a former finance minister described Hitler as thoroughly untruthful. Washington Post gave Trump 3.4 “Pinocchios” (as compared to Hillary Clinton getting 2.2), and noted of the 92 Trump statements that were fact checked, only 11 were found to fall into the category of mostly true or neutral. Attitudes towards women by both Hitler and Trump were quite simply appalling and deeply misogynistic. Hitler and Mussolini declared themselves as opposed to feminism, while Hitler’s predominant offence was in objectifying women for reproductive purposes. As for Trump’s Billy Bush conversation, I am opposed to giving that any more oxygen than it already, by linking to it here. If perchance you don’t know to what I refer, then all I can say is, “Welcome back, I trust that your absence from civilisation over the last few months has not been unduly traumatic”.

The results of Fascism take time.

Under Hitler, unemployment figures began to drop. Public work schemes were introduced, and the German Labour Front was set up to “protect” workers. Measures to ensure the leisure time of the work force was entrenched. It was a good month after he was “elected” in 1933 before Hitler began suspending several constitutional protections on civil rights. Jews didn’t lose their citizenship until 1935; about the same time conscription was brought in. Government income increased to ℛℳ15 billion Reichsmarks by 1939 (from ℛℳ10B in 1928) but then spending increased too. The invasion of Poland didn’t occur till 1939. Hitler had been in “legitimate” power for seven years by then. If Trump stays in power for two terms, he will have eight years to bring to fruition what he desires and the fact that four of the last five presidents served a full eight years is not encouraging. If you hold to the belief that Trump isn’t intimately aware of Hitler’s strategies, then you don’t want to read this.

What have you done?

Of course there are subtle differences. It is 80 years later, after all. But in essence, how is any of this not similar in spirit (if not exact fact) to the rise of Hitler’s Fascist German Nazi Party? And on that point, I should acknowledge the impeccable research work of my wife, who provided me with far more comparative information than I could fit into this one article. Perhaps as Jeet Heer says, ”even if Trump is only fascistic rather than a fascist, that’s more than scary enough“. However you phrase it to make yourself feel more comfortable and sleep well at night, in the end the question remains, where will the rise of Trumpism take America and the rest of the world? Good luck America!